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Forex News Timeline

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Gold consolidates the $90 bounce below $1950, having witnessed good two-way volatility on Wednesday. Falling US Treasury yields continue to pressure t

Gold consolidates the $90 bounce below $1950, having witnessed good two-way volatility on Wednesday. Falling US Treasury yields continue to pressure the US dollar across the board, supporting the yieldless gold. Fading hopes of additional US fiscal stimulus combined with coronavirus concerns continue to undermine the sentiment around the greenback. Upbeat US CPI data sent the Wall Street indices to near-record highs, which knocked-off the safe-haven dollar while lifting the yellow metal from NY lows of $1907. Technically, the bull-bear tug-of-war is likely to extend as long as the price holds the $1900-1950 range. XAU/USD: Key resistances and supports The tool shows that the bright metal is struggling around the key resistance at $1933, which the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month and SMA50 15-minutes. The next hurdle awaits at $1936, a minor confluence of Bollinger Band one-day Middle and SMA10 15-minutes. The buying pressure is likely to accelerate above the latter, driving the spot to test the $1950 barrier, which is the previous day high. Next up, the bulls will aim for the pivot point one-day R1 at $1956. To the downside, the next relevant support is aligned at $1917, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day. Strong support between $1910/07 will keep the buyers hopeful. That cluster of supports is the pivot point one-week S2. Here is how it looks on the tool   About the Confluence Detector With the TCI (Technical Confluences Indicator) tool you can easily locate areas where the price can find a support zone or resistance zone and make trading decisions. If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points each time. If you are a medium- and long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels in which a medium / long-term trend can stop your travel and rest, where to undo positions or where to increase your position.Learn more about Technical Confluence 

USD/CHF struggles to keep the bounce off 0.9100 while taking rounds to 0.9110 during the pre-European session on Thursday. The pair slipped below an a

USD/CHF stays on the back foot after breaking one-week-old support line.RSI conditions challenge further selling, bulls will refrain from entry unless breaking 200-HMA.Monthly low and 0.9000 psychological magnet add filter to the pair’s further downside.USD/CHF struggles to keep the bounce off 0.9100 while taking rounds to 0.9110 during the pre-European session on Thursday. The pair slipped below an ascending trend line from August 06 but failed to provide a decisive break below 0.9100 amid nearly oversold RSI conditions. As a result, the bears holding the reins but wait for a sustained break below 0.9100 before targeting the monthly low near 0.9050 and the 0.9000 threshold. It should be noted that 0.9080, 0.9060 and 0.9030 are extra filters during the pair’s declines from 0.9100 to 0.9000. On the upside, the support-turned-resistance line near 0.9125 and 200-HMA level of 0.9136 could restrict the pair’s short-term advances. Additionally, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of August 03-05 declines, near 0.9170, precedes the weekly top around 0.9200 to increase hardships for buyers. USD/CHF hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

GBP/USD eases from intraday high of 1.3073 to 1.3058 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Even so, the pair keeps its pullback from the pre

GBP/USD snaps two-day losing streak, capped around 1.3075 off-late.UK GDP confirms recession, business leaders, trade unions urge extension of furlough.Brexit remains gloomy but US cut some UK goods from the tariff list, Britain-Japan trade talks stuck over stilton cheese.US Jobless Claims, risk catalysts in focus amid a light calendar in the UK.GBP/USD eases from intraday high of 1.3073 to 1.3058 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Even so, the pair keeps its pullback from the previous day’s low of 1.3005. Although no major positives have crossed wires, as far as the UK is concerned, broad US dollar weakness and the quote’s consolidation after two consecutive days of fall could be cited as the reason for the latest recovery. Moving on, traders will be strained to search the catalysts amid a light calendar. Though, US Jobless Claims and talks surrounding stimulus from American and London, as well as the coronavirus (COVID-19) headlines, could entertain the markets. With over 20% of GDP decline, the UK formally entered into recession the previous day. While the same pushed British business leaders and trade unions towards requesting continuation of furlough scheme beyond October expiry, Chancellor Rishi Sunak sees promising signs off-late. Talking about trade, Brexit jitters continue with fisheries and level-playing field being the latest hurdle. The negotiators will resume the sixth round in the next week. Elsewhere, the US criticized the European Union (EU) over its inaction concerning the airbus case while adding some French and German goods to the tariff list and removing a few from the UK and Greece. Furthermore, Britain and Japan jostle over the blue cheese in the latest difference following the arguments on automobiles. On the other hand, US Senators refrain from picking the pace on stimulus talks. Further, some diplomats from the Trump administration and US President Donald Trump criticized China while ordering a showcase of stealth bombers near Vietnam. Additionally, COVID-19 situations in the US become doubtful amid receding testing whereas the UK managed to reducer over 5,000 death counts after the latest adjustments. Amid all these plays, the market’s risk-tone remains sluggish with the US 10-year Treasury yields and S&P 500 Futures flashing losses while Japan’s Nikkei 225 taking bids near 23,300. Traders may now wait for US jobless claims, expected 1120K versus 1186K prior, for fresh impulse while keeping eyes on macros. Technical analysis The Cable’s latest bounce ignores bearish MACD signals while aiming for a short-term resistance line near 1.3100 now. Meanwhile, a downside break of 10-day EMA level of 1.3035 won’t call the bears immediately as 21-day EMA and an ascending trend line from June 30, respectively around 1.2935 and 1.2850, can keep the buyers hopeful.  

In an interview with the Italian daily, La Repubblica, on Wednesday, the billionaire investing legend George Soros acknowledged that the current Wall

In an interview with the Italian daily, La Repubblica, on Wednesday, the billionaire investing legend George Soros acknowledged that the current Wall Street rally looks like a bubble but noted that there are two key catalysts sustaining the advance. Key quotes "Two simple propositions". "One is that in situations that have thinking participants the participants' view of the world is always incomplete and distorted. That is fallibility." "The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate and distorted views lead to inappropriate actions. That is reflexivity." “The market is sustained by the expectation of more fiscal stimulus along with hopes Trump will announce a vaccine before November.”

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 219,964 with a total of 9,211 deaths, as reported by the German disease and epidemic control center,

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 219,964 with a total of 9,211 deaths, as reported by the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), on Thursday. Cases increased by 1,445 in Germany on Thursday versus Wednesday’s +1,226. The death count rose by 4, the tally showed. The daily rise in cases continues to top 1000 levels, with the total active cases well above the 10K mark. On Wednesday, Germany’s Health Minister Jens Spahn said, “we must be very alert about the rise in coronavirus infections. Spahn had said last week that a general lockdown could be imposed again if the coronavirus numbers rise. EUR/USD holds above 1.1800 EUR/USD is off the highs but trades well bid above 1.1800 amid a broadly weaker US dollar and negative Treasury yields. EUR/USD bid above 1.18 as US 10-year yield drops
 

EUR/USD is trading in the green above 1.18 on Thursday with the dollar losing smile seemingly due to weakness in treasury yields. Yields pullback from

EUR/USD has cleared hurdle at 1.18 alongside a decline in US yields. The US 10-year yield has retreated from five-week highs. A fiscal impasse in Washington is likely weighing over yields and the dollar. EUR/USD is trading in the green above 1.18 on Thursday with the dollar losing smile seemingly due to weakness in treasury yields.  Yields pullback from 5-week highs The US 10-year yield is hovering at 0.65% at press time, down nearly five basis points from Wednesday's five-week high of 0.698%.  The pullback could be associated with the fiscal impasse in Washington, where Democrats and Republicans are struggling to approve an additional stimulus package. Experts are of the opinion that additional stimulus is needed to counter the negative impact of the recent resurgence of the coronavirus. As such, the delay is weighing over yields and the US dollar.  The pair will likely continue to grind higher during the European session if the yields remain under pressure. On the data front, the focus would be on the US jobless claims, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. The German CPI data for July due at 06:00 GMT will likely be a non-event unless it carries a significant upward or downward revision to the preliminary number released two weeks ago.  At press time, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1810, representing a 0.22% gain on the day.  The 10-year yield jumped to five-week highs on Wednesday on the back of upbeat US CPI data. The cost of living in the US ticked higher in July with the consumer price index rising 0.6% month-on-month, the official data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI rising 0.3% in July.  Technical levels  

Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM) rose from previous 87.2% to 170.6%

USD/CNH picks up the bids near 6.9355/60 during the early Thursday. The pair refreshed five-month low the previous day. In doing so, it extends the do

USD/CNH keeps the break of 16-month-old trend line despite bouncing off 6.9276.Bearish MACD, lack of oversold RSI indicates room for additional declines.6.9700 resistance confluence restricts the pair’s immediate upside.USD/CNH picks up the bids near 6.9355/60 during the early Thursday. The pair refreshed five-month low the previous day. In doing so, it extends the downside break of an ascending trend line from April 2019. Other than the sustained downside below the key support line, now resistance, bearish MACD and an absence of oversold RSI conditions also favor the sellers. As a result, March month’s low near 6.9050 acts as immediate support for the pair sellers to watch ahead of 6.9000 round-figures. In a case where the bears dominate past-6.9000, the yearly bottom surrounding 6.8455 will be challenged. Alternatively, the support-turned-resistance line joins 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s upside between March 2018 and September 2019 to confine the immediate upside near 6.9700. Additionally, 7.000 psychological magnet and late-July top near 7.0300 could lure the bulls past-6.9700. USD/CNH weekly chart Trend: Bearish  

Silver is currently trading near $25.90 per ounce, having printed a low of $23.39 on Wednesday. If the bounce fades and prices fall back to $23.50, a

Silver is currently trading near $25.90 per ounce, having printed a low of $23.39 on Wednesday.  If the bounce fades and prices fall back to $23.50, a head-and-shoulders pattern would be confirmed on the 4-hour chart.  Acceptance below $23.50 would confirm breakdown or transition from higher lows, higher highs pattern to lower highs and lower lows pattern, and create room for a slide to $17.14 (target as per the measured move method).  4-hour chartTrend: Bearish below $23.50 Technical levels  

South Korea Money Supply Growth below forecasts (8.3%) in June: Actual (8%)

USD/CAD fell to six-month lows on Thursday as fading hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus kept the greenback under pressure. The pair clocked a low

USD/CAD drops to levels last seen in February. The US fiscal impasse keeps the dollar under pressure. USD/CAD fell to six-month lows on Thursday as fading hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus kept the greenback under pressure.  The pair clocked a low of 1.3227 during the Asian trading hours. That level was last seen on Feb. 21.  Focus on US fiscal impasse Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over additional stimulus for the US economy on Wednesday. President Trump accused Congressional Democrats of not wanting to negotiate the aid package as both sides traded blames for the five-day delay in talks over relief regulation, as noted by Reuters.  The coronavirus outbreak has taken a heavy toll on the US economy and without additional stimulus, the economic recovery may stall. As such, investors offered dollars on Wednesday, and during Thursday's Asian session.  And yet that wasn't the only reason for the decline in USD/CAD. The uptick in gold likely added to bearish pressures around the US dollar. The yellow metal rose above $1,935, extending Wednesday's bounce from $1,963 to $1,900.  In addition, the overnight rally in oil may have drawn bids for the Canadian dollar. WTI rose over 2% on Wednesday after the US government data showed a fall in inventories.  Technical levels  

Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM) dipped from previous 87.2% to -170.6%

Citing top economists and analysts, the Chinese media outlets report that the country is likely to see the first annualized growth in retail sales sin

Citing top economists and analysts, the Chinese media outlets report that the country is likely to see the first annualized growth in retail sales since the coronavirus pandemic in July. Key quotes “China' July retail sales may record the first y/y growth since the pandemic at 2%, as online shopping data improved and cinemas reopened.” “Investment in infrastructure in the first seven months could come in at 1.5% y/y after the government sped up construction projects.” “The demand side is expected to stabilize with the resumption of work and production.”

The narrative that EUR/USD should rally runs counter to any growth data, Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at Institute of International Finance (IIF) twe

The narrative that EUR/USD should rally runs counter to any growth data, Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at Institute of International Finance (IIF) tweeted on Wednesday.  The US economy contracted by 9.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, while the German economy contracted by 11.5%. Meanwhile, France and Spain registered growth rates of -19% and -22.1%, respectively.  EUR/USD is trading at 1.1810, representing a 0.22% gain on the day. The pair rallied from 1.0775 to 1.1916 in 2.5-months to Aug. 6. 

China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Thursday, it is extending an anti-dumping tariff on a fiber optic product made in India, per Reuters.

China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Thursday, it is extending an anti-dumping tariff on a fiber optic product made in India, per Reuters. Additional details “The punitive tariff on single-mode optical fiber takes effect from Aug. 14 and lasts for five years.”  “Tariffs ranging between 7.4% and 30.6% depending on the specific Indian manufacturers.” This comes amid souring diplomatic ties between the countries after India announced a ban on a number of Chinese tech applications. USD/INR implications The Indian rupee could see a bit of downside pressure on the above news, with USD/INR likely to regain the 75 handle.

The NZD/USD is under pressure on recent comments from the central bank's officials where a lower currency is their preference. RBNZ's Yuong Ha says th

The NZD/USD is under pressure on recent comments from the central bank's officials where a lower currency is their preference. RBNZ's Yuong Ha says the Bank would like a weaker NZDThe following 1-hour chart offers the downside support structure for which the price could find its sell testing following those bearish comments on a break of current support. Meanwhile, the following is a top-down analysis of the market structure which favours a run to the downside should daily support give out. Monthly chart The monthly outlook is bearish as price struggles with the upside and an equal high/resistance level.  A head and shoulders could be in the making.  Weekly chart The weekly chart has test the upside resistance and is now holding at support.  The bears need to crack this support for a resumption to extend to the downside. Daily chart The daily chart completed and head and shoulder reversal pattern. However, the support needs to give at this juncture or the upside has a chance to resume.  On a break to the downside, however, the price will enter the barroom brawl and a retest of the prior support turned resistance could open the prospect of the downside playbook for the monthly head and shoulders targets.   

EUR/CHF prints 0.05% gains while portraying another bounce off 200-day EMA during the early Thursday. The pair currently trades near 1.0755, which in

EUR/CHF marks another pullback from the key EMA while defying the previous day’s losses.Bearish MACD, repeated failures to cross 1.0800 keeps sellers hopeful.A downward sloping trend line from June 05 adds to the upside barriers.EUR/CHF prints 0.05% gains while portraying another bounce off 200-day EMA during the early Thursday. The pair currently trades near 1.0755, which in turn rejects the previous day’s downside momentum while keeping the lower high formation intact. Despite the pair’s repeated recovery moves from 200-day EMA, its failure to cross 1.0800 joins hands with the lower high pattern since last Thursday and bearish MACD to favor the sellers. As a result, a daily closing past-200-day EMA level of 1.0743 becomes the bears’ entry-point while targeting 1.0713/10 horizontal support-zone that including June 23 high and July 24 low. Also acting as the key downside support will be an ascending trend line from May 14, at 1.0665 now. Alternatively, the pair’s upside momentum needs to clear the 1.0800 mark before attacking a bit broader trend line resistance near 1.0810. Though, a clear run-up past-1.0810 enables the bulls to challenge the monthly top near 1.0840 while targeting June month’s peak of 1.0915. EUR/CHF daily chart Trend: Bearish  

After New Zealand (NZ) Health Chief, Dr. Bloomfield, said that 14 news coronavirus cases were reported on Thursday, Prime Minister (PM) Jacinda Ardern

After New Zealand (NZ) Health Chief, Dr. Bloomfield, said that 14 news coronavirus cases were reported on Thursday, Prime Minister (PM) Jacinda Ardern noted that she expects the COVID-19 cluster to grow further before it slows. The most likely scenario for the latest virus case was still human to human transmission but want to rule out everything, she added while speaking at a media briefing in Wellington. So far, there are a total of 36 active cases in the country. On Wednesday, PM Ardern said the decision on the restriction will be announced on Friday.   Related content New Zealand health chief says 36 active cases in total RBNZ's Yuong Ha says the Bank would like a weaker NZD

Gold is currently trading around $1,938 per ounce, representing a 1.2% gain on the day. Prices have recovered 4% from the low of $1,863 reached on Wed

Gold's daily chart suggests pullback from record highs has run out of steam. A break above Wednesday's high is needed to confirm bullish reversal. Gold is currently trading around $1,938 per ounce, representing a 1.2% gain on the day. Prices have recovered 4% from the low of $1,863 reached on Wednesday.  Even so, it is too early to call a bullish revival. That's because the yellow metal is yet to rise above $1,950 - the high of Wednesday's spinning bottom candle.  A spinning bottom candle occurs when an asset sees two-way business but ends the day with marginal to moderate gains or losses. It is widely considered a sign of indecision in the market place.  In gold's case, however, it could be taken as a sign of seller exhaustion, given it has appeared following a notable pullback from $2,075 to $1,863 and marks a bear failure to penetrate the ascending trendline connecting March 20 and June 5 lows.  As such, a close above Wednesday's high of $1,950 is needed to confirm a bullish revival. That will likely invite stronger chart-driven buying, yielding a break above $2,000.  On the downside, support is located at $1,913 (Asian session low) and $1,900 (psychological support).  Daily chartTrend: Bullish above $1,950 Technical levels  

weakness in the NZD is being seen onthe comments fro Ha. More to come....

weakness in the NZD is being seen onthe comments fro Ha. More to come....

AUD/JPY rises to 76.67, currently around 76.60, following Australia’s welcome prints of the employment data on early Thursday. However, challenges to

AUD/JPY bounces off 76.49 to 76.67 as Australia’s July month employment data beat expectations.Aussie Unemployment Rate drops below 7.8% forecast to 7.5%, Employment Change crosses 40K market consensus with 114.7K figures.Market sentiment sours amid mixed catalysts and a light calendar.US stimulus, coronavirus and trade headlines become the key to watch.AUD/JPY rises to 76.67, currently around 76.60, following Australia’s welcome prints of the employment data on early Thursday. However, challenges to the risk-tone sentiment seem to question the pair’s upside following the two consecutive days of rise. Additionally, downbeat prints of Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations also weigh on the quote. Read: Australian July Unemployment Rate arrives at 7.5% vs. expected 7.8% Not only the price-positive Aussie jobs data but receding strength of the coronavirus (COVID-19) wave 2.0 in Victoria also favor the pair bulls. The second most populous state of Australia marks a sustained weakness in pandemic numbers above 400. Though, fears of unknown cases among the healthcare workers, as cited by The Guardian, question optimism. Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and US President Donald Trump alleged opposition Democratic Party for the delay in the much-awaited aid package. Though, President Trump’s economic optimism could be cited as restricting the bears. Furthermore, the Trump administration’s showcase of stealth bombers near Vietnam and trade attacks on Europe played their role to confuse the market players. It’s worth mentioning that the trading sentiment rallied the previous day as US inflation data marked upbeat figures amid policymakers’ claim that they’re far from the recession. Amid all these catalysts, S&P 500 Futures ease from the six-month high to 3,368 while stocks in Japan gain 1.68% but Australia’s ASX 200 drop 0.27% to 6,105 as we write. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events will keep traders searching for risk catalysts concerning the US stimulus, Sino-American tussle and COIVD-19 for fresh impulse. Technical analysis Although an eight-day-old ascending trend line suggests the pair’s run-up to 77.00, an upward sloping resistance line from July 24, at 76.75, and the previous month’s top near 76.90 can probe the bulls.  

According to the latest report carried by Bloomberg on Thursday, the clearing data prompted speculations that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may ha

According to the latest report carried by Bloomberg on Thursday, the clearing data prompted speculations that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may have resorted to government bond-buying from domestic banks last month. Key takeaways “Sovereign bonds held by “other” investors -- a category that includes central banks and clearing houses -- rose by 196.5 billion yuan to 1.78 trillion yuan ($256 billion) last month, according to data released by China Central Depository & Clearing Co. last week. Policymakers have frequently said in the past they do not intend to enact the kind of bond-market purchases seen in developed markets and have restricted stimulus measures throughout the coronavirus crisis to moderate trimming of market interest rates and a more generous liquidity policy. But they have flagged a willingness to support the government’s fiscal policy. The PBOC is forbidden by the nation’s central bank law from purchasing government debt in the primary market.”Market reactionThe above report has little to no impact on the Chinese yuan, as USD/CNY trades flat at 6.9375 so far this Thursday.

AUD/USD jumps over 10 pips after the upbeat Aussie labor market data. The jobless rate ticked higher in July as more people joined the labor force. T

AUD/USD jumps over 10 pips after the upbeat Aussie labor market data. The jobless rate ticked higher in July as more people joined the labor force. The economy added a significantly higher number of jobs than expected. AUD/USD's immediate trend depends on the action in gold prices. The already bid AUD/USD is extending gains with the Aussie data painting a positive picture of the labor market. The currency pair is now trading at session highs above 0.7180, having added 10 pips following the release of the upbeat jobs report.  Labor force participation increases Australia’s unemployment rose to 7.5% in July, versus expectations for 7.8% and 7.4% previous. The smaller-than-expected rise is positive news. Also, the jobless rate ticked higher mainly due to an increase in the participation rate from 64% to 64.7%.  What’s more, the economy added 114.7K jobs. The country was forecasted to have added 40K jobs following June’s 210.8K additions. Full-time jobs increased by 4.5K following June’s decline of 38.1K.  All-in-all, the data is likely to quell fears of prolonged economic slowdown and keep the AUD better bid during the day ahead. Take note that the RBA has pledged to keep the policy accommodative until credible evidence of sustained improvement in the labor market and inflation emerges.  The central bank foresees the unemployment rate rising to 10% later in 2020 due to job losses in Victoria and then gradually declining to around 7%.  The gains in the Aussie dollar, however, will likely be reversed if gold comes under pressure. The yellow metal fell sharply from $2,075 to $1,863 in the last four trading days, helping the oversold greenback chart gains against major currencies. The AUD/USD pair also declined from 0.7243 to 0.7109 in the four trading days to Aug. 12, before recovering above 0.7150 during the overnight trade. Gold is currently trading around $1,938 per ounce.  Technical levels  

The Australian job report has been released as follows, lifting the Aussie on the better than expected jobs numbers, passing 0.7180. Aussie jobs data

The Australian job report has been released as follows, lifting the Aussie on the better than expected jobs numbers, passing 0.7180. Aussie jobs data AUSTRALIA JULY EMPLOYMENT +114.7K S/ADJ (REUTERS POLL: +40.0K) 12-Aug-2020 19:30:01 - AUSTRALIA JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +7.5 PCT, S/ADJ (REUTERS POLL: +7.8) 12-Aug-2020 19:30:01 - AUSTRALIA JULY FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT +43.5K S/ADJ 12-Aug-2020 19:30:01 - AUSTRALIA JULY PARTICIPATION RATE +64.7 PCT, S/ADJ (REUTERS POLL: +64.4 PCT) Westpac analysts, ahead of the release, explained that after a substantial jump in employment in June of 210.8k, the recovery should continue in July at a slower pace. Westpac and the market expected increases of 40k and 30k respectively. Rising participation should drive unemployment higher from 7.4% to 7.8%, which would be a high since 1998. AUD/USD implications Meanwhile, Australia’s economic recovery will be slowed notably by the Victorian virus resurgence. Stage 4 restrictions will weigh on the participation rate and leave the unemployment level elevated.  How much this hurts A$ is an open question, with the RBA consistently pushing back against further easing steps such as negative interest rates. China’s industrial sector rebound also continues to underpin Australia’s resources-driven trade surpluses, analysts at Westpac argued. The AUD is the commodity currency which means it is bearing the biggest risk of a correction in the case of further escalation in US-China tensions... More to come...

Australia Part-Time Employment down to 71.2K in July from previous 249K

S&P 500 Futures drop to 3,366 down 0.10% on a day, during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Thursday. The risk barometer refreshed the six-week high t

S&P 500 Futures ease from six-month high amid a lack of risk-positive headlines.Geopolitics, trade tension weigh on market sentiment amid US stimulus deadlock.US President Trump’s economic optimism struggles to recall the bulls.S&P 500 Futures drop to 3,366 down 0.10% on a day, during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Thursday. The risk barometer refreshed the six-week high the previous day but fails to ignore the underlying threats to optimism off-late. Among them, the Sino-American tension and the deadlock in the US stimulus talks gain major attention. Recently, Trump administration showcased stealth bombers near Vietnam where China was already flaunting its nuclear weapons during the drill. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and US President Donald Trump alleged opposition Democratic Party for the delay in the aid package. Further, the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s verbal attack on Europe and America’s citing of Iranian Navy Guard’s performance are some of the additional threats to the market sentiment. On the contrary, US President Donald Trump keeps highlighting the V-shaped recovery while upbeat inflation data from America favors the claims. Also challenging the bears are welcome Producer Price Index (PPI) from Japan and receding coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers from Australia. Other than the aforementioned mixed catalysts, Japan’s Nikkei 225, up 1.66% to 23,225, as well as the US 10-year Treasury yields, down 2.2 basis points (bps) to 0.66% also disturb the market players. While searching for a clear direction, traders may keep eyes on the US budget talks and trade updates, not to forget COVID-19 news, as the economic calendar seems mostly dull. Even so, weekly prints of US Jobless Claims, expected 1120K versus 1186K prior, may offer intermediate moves to the markets.

Australia Fulltime Employment climbed from previous -38.1K to 43.5K in July

Australia Employment Change s.a. above forecasts (40K) in July: Actual (114.7K)

Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 7.5%, below expectations (7.8%) in July

Australia Participation Rate registered at 64.7% above expectations (64.4%) in July

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.9429 versus Wednesday's fix at 6.9597.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.9429 versus Wednesday's fix at 6.9597.

New Zealand health chief says 36 active cases in total. More to come....

New Zealand health chief says 36 active cases in total. More to come....

GBP/USD recovers from 10-day EMA while trading near 1.3057, up 0.18% on a day, during the early Thursday’s Asian session. The Cable’s latest bounce ig

GBP/USD extends recovery gains from 1.3020 while snapping a two-day losing streak.Bearish MACD, one-week-old faling trend line doubts the pair’s further upside.21-day EMA, a six-week-old support line add to the downside support.GBP/USD recovers from 10-day EMA while trading near 1.3057, up 0.18% on a day, during the early Thursday’s Asian session. The Cable’s latest bounce ignores bearish MACD signals while aiming for a short-term resistance line. However, the pair’s further upside beyond the said trend line resistance, at 1.3100 now, will need a strong push before attacking the monthly top around 1.3185 and March month’s peak surrounding 1.3200. In a case where the bulls dominate past-1.3200, December 31, 2019 high close to 1.3285 can return to the chart. Meanwhile, a downside break of 10-day EMA level of 1.3035 won’t call the bears immediately as 21-day EMA and an ascending trend line from June 30, respectively around 1.2935 and 1.2850, can still trigger the pair’s bounce. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 3.3% below forecasts (3.4%) in August

A report from earlier came from The Times, writing that three American B-2 stealth bombers have arrived in the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia on

A report from earlier came from The Times, writing that three American B-2 stealth bombers have arrived in the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia on the eve of Chinese live-firing naval exercises north of Taiwan. It is the first time the nuclear-capable strategic bombers have been sent to the remote island since 2016, in an indication of the growing concern about China's intentions towards Taiwan. Not sure encouraging headlines ahead of the formal high-level review on the US-China trade deal due on Saturday.

Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), expects Turkey's current account deficit to narrow sharply in the secon

Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), expects Turkey's current account deficit to narrow sharply in the second half of 2020 and support lira. As such, the IIF is retaining its TRY fair value target of 7.5 per US dollar, despite the currency's recent slide to a record low of 7.35 per US dollar.  The currency has depreciated by 5.18% this month and is down 23% on a year-to-date basis.  The IIF changed TRY's fair value twice early this year, first to 6.30 in early April and then to 7.50 a week ago. The fair value is a reflection of the credit impulse and its effect on the current account deficit.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Bascand says that the resurgence of virus in NZ is a big risk to its outlook. Key notes Would have to consider more mone

Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Bascand says that the resurgence of virus in NZ is a big risk to its outlook. Key notes Would have to consider more monetary stimulus if there are periods of resurgence and longer lockdowns. Banks are resilient and have good strength to get us through this period for now. Will probably do a combination of negative interest rates and 'funding for lending' programme if more stimulus needed beyond QE extension announced. Sees a fairly soft, low growth world for a period of time.

USD/JPY drops to 106.75, down 0.16%, as traders in Tokyo begin their Thursday’s work. The yen pair’s latest decline stalls the previous four days’ ups

USD/JPY snaps four-day winning streak while taking a U-turn from 106.92.Market sentiment stays positive despite US stimulus deadlock, trade wars.The upbeat performance of Japanese PPI exerts additional downside pressure.A light calendar keeps risk catalysts in the driver’s seat.USD/JPY drops to 106.75, down 0.16%, as traders in Tokyo begin their Thursday’s work. The yen pair’s latest decline stalls the previous four days’ upside as changes into the risk sentiment join upbeat factory-gate inflation data from Japan. Risk-on mood weakens the USD, Japanese PPI pleases the pair bears… With the global traders paying a little heed to the latest geopolitical headlines, not to forget no progress in the American Senate discussions over the coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package, market sentiment negates the early-Asian risk-off mood while recalling Wednesday's optimism. In doing so, traders ignore The Times’ headline citing the Trump administration’s show of powers, via sending stealth bombers near Taiwan, to combat the Chinese threat by showcasing nuclear weapons. Also highlighting the geopolitical threats could be the US Central Command’s tweet citing the Iranian Navy overtaking a ship called “Wila”. Furthermore, Beijing’s citing of COVID-19 traces on imported frozen poultry and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s verbal attack on Europe also join the challenges to the risk. On the contrary, US President Donald Trump’s optimism backs the recent improvement in the American inflation data. The same joins the market belief that the Republican leader will smash any hurdles to Senate stimulus with this executive power as he did recently. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures gain 0.10% while stocks in Japan rise 1.8% by the press time. Also portraying the risk-on mood is the US 10-year Treasury yields, currently around 0.672%, as well as the US dollar index (DXY), down 0.17% to 93.27. Talking about the data, Japan’s July month Producer Price Index (PPI) grew past-0.3% forecast on MoM to 0.6%. Further, the yearly figures slipped less than -1.1% expected level to -0.9%. Looking forward, traders will keep eyes on the risk catalysts for fresh impulse ahead of the US session when the weekly jobless claims could entertain the markets. Technical analysis 50-day SMA, currently around 106.85, probes the pair’s break of a descending trend line from June 05. Hence, buyers will look for entries beyond 107.00, to be a safer side, while aiming to challenge a downward sloping trend line from March 25, at 108.07 now. On the downside, the resistance-turned-support line joins 21-day SMA to highlight 106.15 as the near-term key level to watch.  

EUR/USD is currently chipping away at the psychological hurdle of 1.18, having put in a low of 1.1711 on Wednesday. The 4-hour chart shows a falling w

EUR/USD is looking to establish a foothold above 1.18 in Asia. The 4-hour chart shows the pullback from recent highs above 1.19 has ended.EUR/USD is currently chipping away at the psychological hurdle of 1.18, having put in a low of 1.1711 on Wednesday.  The 4-hour chart shows a falling wedge breakout. The pattern comprises converging trendlines connecting lower highs and lower lows. The converging nature of trendlines is considered a sign of weak bearish momentum. As such, the breakout is considered a sign of bullish reversal.  In EUR’s case, it indicates that the pullback from recent highs above 1.19 has ended and the uptrend has resumed. The immediate hurdle is located at 1.1916 (Aug. 6 high). Meanwhile, support is located at 1.1777 (Asian session low), which, if breached, would shift risk in favor of a re-test of a weekly low of 1.1711.  4-hour chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels

The Monthly is bearish and is looking as though it wants to form a head and shoulders. The weekly is proving that there is resistance that first needs

AUD/JPY is an attractive short below the daily structure.Currently, the stars do not quite align across all time frames from a top-down market structure analysis.  The Monthly is bearish and is looking as though it wants to form a head and shoulders. The weekly is proving that there is resistance that first needs to hold the bullish commitments at this juncture. The daily chart has a strong bullish bias while holding above a strong support structure along with the ascending trendline support. Monthly chart The above chart shows a potential reversal head and shoulders pattern in the making, offering downside target opportunities for the bears.  Weekly chart The weekly chart is showing that the bulls are trying for a second attempt a the resistance. Should they fail, the prospects for the head and shoulders are sound. Daily chart The daily support structure is a confluence of higher lows, the support trendline and a restest of the structure which confirms a bullish bias.   However, should the same confluence breakdown, then bears will be looking to take over in the barroom brawl zone and a shorting opportunity on a retest of broken support structure turned resistance. 

July month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst

July month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the more important as traders will be keen to observe job recovery after the economic halt and amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence. Market consensus favors Employment Change to drop to 40.0K from 210.8K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to rise from 7.4% to 7.8%. Further, the Participation Rate may increase to 64.4% from 64.00% previous readouts. Westpac stays skeptical of market forecasts ahead of the release as their analysts say, After a substantial jump in employment in June of 210.8k, the recovery should continue in July at a slower pace. Westpac and the market expect increases of 40k and 30k respectively. Rising participation should drive unemployment higher from 7.4% to 7.8%, which would be high since 1998. ANZ, on the other hand, remains supportive of the consensus while saying, Employment data at 11.30 am (Australian time) is the main game in town today. We expect employment to rise by 60k (market 40k) and the unemployment rate to lift to 7.7%. How could the data affect AUD/USD? Given the RBA’s dovish tone and lockdown conditions in Victoria challenging the recently upbeat trading sentiment, AUD/USD may recall the bears if employment data disappoints. It should, however, be noted that the market optimism concerning the absence of US-China tussle and latest recovery in Australia’s COVID-19 figures may gain strength on the better-than-forecast jobs report. Technically, the pair’s bounce off 21-day EMA enables it to attack 0.7200 immediate resistance ahead of the monthly top near 0.7245. On the downside, 0.7065/60 area comprising July 24 low and June 10 high can offer an extra support past-0.7115 level including the short-term EMA. Key Notes AUD/USD: Recovery moves eye 0.7200 ahead of Aussie jobs report AUD/USD Forecast: Marginally up ahead of critical Australian data. Australian Employment Preview: Disappointing figures mostly priced in About the Employment Change The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). About the Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

The drift higher has started due to the contrasting central bank themes. At the time fo writing, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0892 within a 1.0877 and 1.08

The drift higher has started due to the contrasting central bank themes. At the time fo writing, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0892 within a 1.0877 and 1.0895 range.  Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's relaxed approach, in contrast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was very clear that it wanted a lower currency.  The RBNZ kept its cash rate at 0.25% as fully expected but provided a mild surprise by extending its QE program from NZD60bn to NZD100bn. The central banks, however, did extend the timeframe of the purchases to 2022.  The NZD moved 30-40bps lower immediately but has since recovered part of the move. Given how dovish the tone was, we see a real risk that the NZD weakens further in coming weeks as the gravity of today sinks in. The pace of bond purchases to step-up and weigh  Now that the RBNZ has adopted a tactical approach to bond purchases and specifically mentioned its desire to actively get the bond curve lower and flatter, we suspect that we will see the pace of bond purchases step up, which will drive long end rates lower, and that will eventually weaken the Kiwi, USD gyrations notwithstanding, analysts at Westpac offered. Commodities in focus Meanwhile, AUD/USD has been under pressure at the time from renewed pressure on gold prices, probing 0.7110, about -40 pips on the day. This kept a lid on AUD/NZD.  Spot gold broke below USD1,900/oz as investors took profits from the months-long rally yesterday. However, new inflationary pressures following the US inflation data, investors got back involved at bargain prices. Gold subsequently rallied to USD1,950/oz before further profit-taking saw prices ease into the close. Al in all, a risk-on tone across markets helped boost sentiment in the commodity markets, with the ANZ China Commodity Index ending the session up 0.2%, analysts at ANZ Bank explained. The energy sector led the complex higher, with crude oil rising strongly. Copper led the industrial metals sector higher, offsetting falls in nickel and zinc. Agriculture was also stronger, driven by gains in corn, soybeans and palm oil. Precious metals also managed to eke out a small gain, with gold rebounding while silver struggled. Bulk commodities was the only sector to end in the red, with iron ore and coking coal marginally lower. Aussie Jobs data next in line  The Australian labour market is the focus for the day.  Employment is expected to rise by 40k and the unemployment rate to lift to 7.8%. AUD/NZD levels    

Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.3%) in July

Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-1.1%) in July: Actual (-0.9%)

USD/CAD stays pressured near 1.3245 amid the initial Asian session trading on Thursday. The loonie pair dropped to the fresh low since February the pr

USD/CAD remains on the back foot while extending the latest pullback from 1.3347.RSI conditions offer intermediate bounce inside bearish chart pattern.200-bar SMA adds to the upside barriers, February low offer nearby support.USD/CAD stays pressured near 1.3245 amid the initial Asian session trading on Thursday. The loonie pair dropped to the fresh low since February the previous day but nearly overbought RSI conditions seem to have limited the quote’s downside past-1.3229. Even so, a descending trend channel formation from July 08 keeps the sellers hopeful. As a result, February month low near 1.3200 keeps luring the bears once the pair slips below 1.3229. Though, the channel’s support around 1.3170/65 may offer another pullback moves afterward. In a case where the USD/CAD prices fail to recover from 1.3165, the early-January top around 1.3100 and October 2019 low near 1.3040 could entertain the sellers. On the upside, 1.3300 and 1.3330/35 can return to the charts during the pair’s fresh bounce. However, buyers will stay cautious unless breaking a 200-bar SMA level of 1.3470, needless to mention about the channel’s resistance line, at 1.3365 now. USD/CAD four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

NZD/USD attacks the lower end of the immediate trading range while trading near 0.6574 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The kiwi pair manag

NZD/USD stays in a choppy range below 0.6580 following its pullback from 0.6601.New Zealand Food Price Index grew past-0.5% to 1.2% in July.Market sentiment struggles to keep the previous day’s upside momentum amid mixed catalysts.Aussie employment data, updates concerning US stimulus, coronavirus and trade wars will be the key.NZD/USD attacks the lower end of the immediate trading range while trading near 0.6574 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The kiwi pair managed to recover the RBNZ-led losses during late-Wednesday amid risk-on mood. However, the recent challenges to the trading sentiment keep the bears hopeful. In doing so, the pair also ignores upbeat prints of New Zealand’s Food Price Index for July. The price data crossed 0.5% prior with 1.2% MoM. Dovish RBNZ can’t be ignored… Upbeat US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and an absence of major negatives from the Sino-American frontier helped NZD/USD to recovery the RBNZ-led losses the previous day. However, the central bank’s dovish play precedes the latest coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence and the resulted lockdowns. As a result, the policymakers are likely to turn more pessimistic during their next appearances. While identifying this, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ)   said, “Now that the RBNZ has adopted a tactical approach to bond purchases and specifically mentioned its desire to actively get the bond curve lower and flatter, we suspect that we will see the pace of bond purchases step up, which will drive long end rates lower, and that will eventually weaken the Kiwi, USD gyrations notwithstanding.” Talking about the risks, dimming prospects that the US policymakers can overcome stimulus deadlock join the on-going trade wars, not to forget the COVID-19, weigh on the market sentiment. The latest comments from US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently stopped the S&P 500 Futures from following its Wall Street benchmark that closed near the all-time high. Although US President Donald Trump stays ready to cut the payroll taxes, his hard stand against China and Europe will keep the risk-tone sentiment pressured. As a result, the kiwi buyers may witness a sustained weakness in the absence of any major positives. While searching for clues, the pair traders will observe Australia’s July month employment data for fresh impetus. Additionally, the risk factors emanating from the US and virus can keep the markets entertained. Technical analysis Unless successfully crossing 21-day EMA near 0.6600, NZD/USD prices become vulnerable to revisit 0.6520 level comprising 50-day EMA that triggered the quote’s post-RBNZ bounce.  

United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance registered at 12% above expectations (-5%) in July

WTI picks up bids near $42.86, up 0.16% on a day, during the pre-Tokyo Asian session on Thursday. The energy benchmark flaunted the biggest gains in a

WTI defies the previous day’s pullback from $43.12 with a bounce off $42.76.Bullish MACD joins the price-positive chart pattern and suggests further upside.Sellers will look for entries below 200-HMA, monthly top lures the buyers.WTI picks up bids near $42.86, up 0.16% on a day, during the pre-Tokyo Asian session on Thursday. The energy benchmark flaunted the biggest gains in a month on Wednesday while keeping a one-week-old ascending trend channel formation. Although MACD signals increase the strength of the bullish chart pattern, the channel’s resistance line, at $43.25 now, can question the black gold’s immediate upside. If at all the buyers manage to cross $43.25, the monthly high near $43.65 and February month’s low near $44.00 will act as additional resistances for them to confront. Alternatively, $42.30 and the channel’s support line near $41.90 precede a 200-HMA level of $41.81 to challenge the commodity bears. While August 03 high near $41.40 adds to the supports below the key HMA, the quote’s further downside will make it vulnerable to attack the $40.00 threshold. WTI hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

New Zealand Food Price Index (MoM): 1.2% (July) vs 0.5%

Gold prices stay positive around $1,920 during the early Thursday morning in Asia. The bullion dropped to the lowest since July 23 before bouncing off

Gold prices pullback from $1,907 to mark the second recovery wave from $1,863.24.US policymakers fail to push stimulus talks, trade jitters continue.US President Trump says to forgive payroll taxes after the election.Risk factors remain in focus amid a light calendar.Gold prices stay positive around $1,920 during the early Thursday morning in Asia. The bullion dropped to the lowest since July 23 before bouncing off $1,863.24 the previous day. While carrying forward its recovery moves, the precious metal keeps a $1,900 mark amid mixed catalysts. The US keeps the focus… Be it the American stimulus deadlock or recent verbal attacks on Europe, not to forget upbeat promises from President Donald Trump, the US remains in the market focus. Even so, trading sentiment seems to have paused the previous upbeat performance as the US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer increases levies on France and Germany while cutting the same on Greece and the UK. Also challenging the risk-tone sentiment is comments from the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin suggesting further hardships for Senate negotiations concerning the much-needed stimulus. Even so, US President Donald Trump tries to play his role as an optimist while saying that economic performance is significantly better than Europe. The Republican leader also showed readiness to cut payroll taxes after the November month elections. Also on the positive side is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Steven Kaplan who pushed the government for further unemployment benefits while ruling out the need for lockdowns. Amid all these catalysts, S&P 500 Futures take rounds to 3,370 while keeping the previous day’s run-up. Wall Street closed notably positive whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields also rose on Wednesday. The reason could be traced from the upbeat US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and no major negatives from the US-China tussle frontier. Looking forward, traders will keep eyes on the risk catalysts like US aid package, coronavirus (COVID-19) updates and Sino-American news for fresh impetus. Given the recently mixed headlines, gold buyers may turn cautious. Technical analysis Despite bouncing off 50-day EMA near $1,860, gold prices are yet to regain their stand past-21-day EMA level of $1,935, which in turn suggests the bulls to not hurry while opening fresh positions.  

The US. recovery has been "muted" by the resurgence of the coronavirus in recent weeks and could mar improvement in the unemployment rate, Dallas Fede

The US. recovery has been "muted" by the resurgence of the coronavirus in recent weeks and could mar improvement in the unemployment rate, Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said overnight. In more cent trade, Kaplan has commented saying that an extension of unemployment benefit is important and that a hard lockdown is not the right answer for the US economy. "The rebounding continues but with the resurgence that has muted the rebound, it has muted the recovery," Kaplan said in Webcast remarks overnight to the Lubbock Chamber of Commerce. He said he thought the unemployment rate could fall to 9% by the end of the year, or even below that, but "it requires adherence to protocols particularly wearing masks...If we don’t follow that, while people may feel freer, the economy will grow slower.” Market implications Meanwhile, risk appetite recovered on Wednesday, with North American stocks making up for Tuesday's losses as the S&P 500 tested the all-time closing highs, despite no signs of progress in stimulus talks in Congress.  

US President Donald Trump reappraised the American economic performance during this routing White House press conference on early Thursday morning in

US President Donald Trump reappraised the American economic performance during this routing White House press conference on early Thursday morning in Asia. Key quotes US economy performance significantly better than Europe. We're doing incredibly well" with the coronavirus (COVID-19) and therapeutics. The manufacturing sector is booming. We had to turn off the economy and now we're turning it back on and that's beyond a V-shape. We lead the world, Japan is second -- but in terms of dollar value it's not even close. This will be one of the greatest frauds in history, blaming the democrats for pushing mail-in voting. Fx implications The news helps AUD/USD pair to stop its pullback from 0.7177 while bouncing off 0.7155 to 0.7162.

Early Thursday morning in Asia, The Times came out with the news suggesting further easy money policies from the UK. The reason could be spotted in th

Early Thursday morning in Asia, The Times came out with the news suggesting further easy money policies from the UK. The reason could be spotted in the employment organizations’ and unions’ push to British Chancellor to keep supporting their workers. Key quotes Business leaders and trade unions have urged the government to provide continued support for workers to prevent the nascent economic recovery from petering out as furlough scheme is expiring in October. Responding to GDP figures that show that economy was two months into a recovery from the deepest recession on record, employer organizations and unions told the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to extend furlough or cut employment taxes to avert a jobs disaster. Fx implications Despite being positive for the GBP/USD pair, the news fails to put a bid under the quote while flashing 1.3030 as the quote by the press time.

Early Thursday morning in Asia, late-Wednesday in the West, the US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer crossed wires, via Reuters, while cri

Early Thursday morning in Asia, late-Wednesday in the West, the US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer crossed wires, via Reuters, while criticizing the European Union (EU) over the bloc’s performance on the airbus case. The Trump administration member also marked some tariff changes for the UK, Greece, France and Germany. Key quotes Will modify list of EU products affected by tariffs in aircraft subsidy case. Tariff rates on EU products will remain unchanged at 25% for EU goods, and 15% for aircraft Modifying list of EU products facing tariffs to remove some from Greece and Britain, adding equivalent amount France and Germany. EU has not taken actions necessary to comply with the WTO decision on aircraft subsidies. US. committed to obtaining long-term resolution to dispute over aircraft subsidies; will begin new process with EU. Market reaction The trade-negative news joins the doubts over American stimulus package to probe the risk-barometer AUD/USD pair’s recent recovery around 0.7160.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly adds more comments, this time on stimulus talks as well, while extending her latest s

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly adds more comments, this time on stimulus talks as well, while extending her latest speech. Key quotes Lapse of extended unemployment benefits creates "a hole" in consumer demand and spending. It wouldn't surprise her if data in fall suggests parents leaving the labor force because of difficulties finding child care. Forward guidance can make some of the Fed's tools more effective by sending a clearer message to the public. Congress will need to build a "bridge" now that dealing with coronavirus longer than had hoped. FX implications  The update exerts additional pressure on the US Senators to roll out the much-awaited aid-package, which in turn highlights updates concerning the same. As a result, the recent downbeat comments from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin probe the AUD/USD buyers around 0.7160.

AUD/USD eases from the previous day’s top, flashed a few hours back, to 0.7160 at the start of Thursday’s Asian session. Even so, the quote remains on

AUD/USD keeps pullback from 0.7108, snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday.Market sentiment improved on upbeat US data, no major negatives from US-China.S&P500 refreshed record tops, Gold also bounced from $1,860.US Senators struggle to renegotiate the stimulus, Australian employment for July will be the key.AUD/USD eases from the previous day’s top, flashed a few hours back, to 0.7160 at the start of Thursday’s Asian session. Even so, the quote remains on the front-foot while carrying the U-turn from 21-day EMA. While broad risk-on mood could be cited for the pair’s earlier upbeat performance, doubts over the US aid package negotiations recently seem to exert the downside pressure. Bulls cheer gains of equities, gold despite downbeat concerns at home… Although Australia’s Wage Price Index and Westpac Consumer Confidence flashed unwelcomed figures the previous day, AUD/USD prices managed to snap the three-day declines. The reason could be traced from the market’s optimism surrounding the recovery in the world’s largest economy, as portrayed by the latest inflation data. Following the upbeat performance of the Producers Price Index (PPI), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) also beat expectations while rising double the forecast of 0.3% to 0.6% in July. Other than the upbeat data, an absence of negatives from the Sino-American tussle frontier also helped the trading sentiment to remain positive. Although US President Donald Trump said the phase one deal means “very little” to him, Chinese diplomats have off-late shown serious concerns to back the negotiations. The same could be witnessed in their agricultural buying from America, as per the White House Adviser Larry Kudlow. Elsewhere, the coronavirus (COVID-19) statistics in the US have recently being doubted as the fall in the new cases joined a decline in the testing. On the other hand, Victoria’s also step back but stay above 400. Against this backdrop, Wall Street flashed notable gains wherein the S&P 500 passed with flying colors by refreshing record high. The US 10-year Treasury yields also gained 1.5 basis points (bps) to 0.673% by the end of Wednesday. Moving on, traders will keep eyes on July month's employment data from Australia. Forecasts suggest Employment Change drop from 210.8K to 40K with a rise in Unemployment Change to 7.8% against 7.4% prior. It should also be noted that the recently grim words from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin probes the bulls and makes it important for traders to keep a watch on risk catalysts as well. Technical analysis The pair’s bounce off 21-day EMA enables it to attack 0.7200 immediate resistance ahead of the monthly top near 0.7245. On the downside, 0.7065/60 area comprising July 24 low and June 10 high can offer an extra support past-0.7115 level including the short-term EMA.  

The US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, has said that he spoke to House Speaker Pelosi earlier today. Key comments Pelosi unwilling to meet to conti

The US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, has said that he spoke to House Speaker Pelosi earlier today. Key comments Pelosi unwilling to meet to continue negotiations unless agreed in advance to her proposal costing at least $2tln.
Democrats have no interest in negotiating. Market implications Sticking points on reaching a deal include the size of an extended unemployment benefit, aid for state and local governments and reopening of schools.  This is not going to resolved at a drop of a hat, yet markets are sidestepping the pending risk for the US consumer, instead, presuming a deal will be struck.  The S&p 500 rallied to test the all-time closing high on Wednesday.  

US benchmarks ended higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the US inflation data, advances in the Big-5 techs and despite the deadlock in Congress. The S&P 50

S&P 500 unofficially closed up 46.52 points, or 1.40% , at 3,380.21DJIA unofficially closed up 298.14 points, or 1.08% , at 27,985.05.NASDAQ unofficially closed up 229.18 points, or 2.13% , at 11,012.00.US benchmarks ended higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the US inflation data, advances in the Big-5 techs and despite the deadlock in Congress. The S&P 500 was the head-turner as it flirted with new highs, trading to 3,387.89 in the last hour of the session, ending just below the all-time closing high having breached it earlier in the day. The Nasdaq and Dow also rose sharply. The Nasdaq was the first of the three major indexes to bounce back to an all-time high in June. The Dow remains below its February peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI rose 289.93 points, or 1.05%, to 27,976.84, the S&P 500 SPX gained 46.66 points, or 1.40%, to 3,380.35 and the Nasdaq Composite IXIC added 229.42 points, or 2.13%, to 11,012.24. Tesla Inc TSLA shares jumped 13.1%, in one of the biggest boosts to the Nasdaq, after it announced a five-for-one stock split in an attempt to make its shares more accessible to employees and investors. The Big-5. Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Amazon.com AMZN, Alphabet GOOG and Facebook FB accounted for 40% of the S&P 500's near 47 point rise. US CPI beats expectations Prices trended up in the US in July with the headline CPI up 0.6% m/m – twice the rise expected. Core CPI also rose 0.6%, its largest rise in nearly 30 years. Clothing prices lifted 1.1% while used cars gained 2.3% and fuel prices shot up 5.6%. This data and the PPI released a day earlier were both stronger than expected but with the virus still raging in the US it may be some time before there is a sustained improvement in economic activity, analysts at ANZ Bank explained. SP500 levels  
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