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هشدار ریسک: معامله با ریسک همراه است و سرمایه شما در معرض خطر است. Exinity Limited تحت نظارت FSC موریس تنظیم شده است.

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سه‌شنبه، 11 اوت، 2020

The euro outperformance has been driven by risk on-risk off (RORO), rather than a narrowing of idiosyncratic European risk. Economists at HSBC remain

The euro outperformance has been driven by risk on-risk off (RORO), rather than a narrowing of idiosyncratic European risk. Economists at HSBC remain positive on the USD’s outlook against the EUR where fiscal frailties may become a challenge in the months ahead. Key quotes “The Next Generation EU may not do much to arrest potential political angst in Europe, should unemployment rates rise and remain elevated as policy support diminishes later this year. Further financial integration should help the economic response for many countries, but it will not diminish the threat of Euroscepticism across the region, which could rear its head at the polls in the future.” “The EUR's performance against other G10 currencies points us more towards a traditional 'Risk On-Risk Off (RORO) environment that has been dominant since late February for FX. There are some signs that the broader RORO Index may have peaked, suggesting a little more idiosyncratic behaviour is starting to creep in. But it is early days right now.” “We are still expecting a relatively slow global economic recovery, with downside risks, and in such a world, we would expect fiscal policy flexibility to support currency strength. As a result, we remain positive on the USD's outlook against the EUR where fiscal frailties may become more of a challenge in the months ahead.”  

EUR/GBP is flat on Tuesday morning as trades at 0.8980. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, notes that the pair lo

EUR/GBP is flat on Tuesday morning as trades at 0.8980. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, notes that the pair lost steam ahead of the 55-day ma at 0.9051 and expects a drop towards the 0.8931 July low. Key quotes “EUR/GBP has failed near-term at the 55-day ma at 0.9051 and is starting to break down from its range. Above the market lies the 0.9134 resistance line and this guards the recent high at 0.9178. We would allow for a slide to 0.8931 the July low.” “A move above 0.9184 (Fibo) would trigger a rise to 0.9308 the 2017 high and 0.9323. This is the location of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. This is formidable resistance and is expected to hold the initial test.”  

USD/JPY is forecasted to stick to the 105.00/106.00 range for the time being, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes “USD traded between 105.69

USD/JPY is forecasted to stick to the 105.00/106.00 range for the time being, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes “USD traded between 105.69 and 106.19 yesterday before settling little changed at 105.95 (+0.04%). The underlying tone has firmed somewhat and this could lead to USD edging higher towards 106.40. For today, a sustained rise above this level is not expected (next resistance is at 106.60). Support is at 105.85 followed by 105.65.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last Thursday (06 Aug, spot at 105.55). As highlighted, we continue to expect USD to consolidate, likely between 105.00 and 106.60. That said, upward momentum is showing sign of improving but for now, the prospect for a clear break of 106.60 is not high.”  

The sterling is looking to add to Monday’s gains and is now taking GBP/USD to the 1.3070 region in the wake of results from the UK docket. GBP/USD fad

GBP/USD wobbles near 1.3070 following UK data on Tuesday.UK’s labour market results showed mixed results for the month of June.Focus now shifted to GDP figures, Industrial Production due on Wednesday.The sterling is looking to add to Monday’s gains and is now taking GBP/USD to the 1.3070 region in the wake of results from the UK docket. GBP/USD fades Monday’s advance Cable fails to extend the positive note seen at the beginning of the week, slipping back to the 1.3070 region after briefly attempting to re-test the 1.3100 neighbourhood during early trade. In fact, the quid came under pressure after the unemployment rate stayed put at 3.9%, while the Claimant Count Change went up by more than 94K and Average Earnings plus Bonus contracted 1.2% during June. In the meantime, Cable’s upside momentum remains propped up by dollar weakness and the generalized better mood in the risk complex, relegating concerns over the progress of the pandemic and its impact on the UK economy as well as over the UK-EU trade negotiations. Later in the session, the NIESR GDP Estimate is due, while key UK GDP figures, Industrial Production and Trade Balance results are all due on Wednesday. What to look for around GBP The sterling seems to have entered into a consolidation phase following last week’s tops in levels just shy of 1.32 the figure. Dollar dynamics have mainly been behind the July-August rally, although a more convincing performance in Cable faces the usual risks associated with more domestic drivers, like the handling of the coronavirus crisis by the UK government, the impact of the pandemic on the economy, unabated Brexit effervescence and the neutral/dovish stance from the Bank of England (BoE). GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 1.3072 and a breakout of 1.3185 (monthly high Aug.6) would open the door to 1.3200 (monthly high Mar.9) and then 1.3250 (2020 high Jan.2). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 1.2981 (monthly low Aug.4) followed by 1.2813 (monthly high Jun.10) and finally 1.2706 (200-day SMA).

XAU/USD is extending its downward correction

XAU/USD is extending its downward correction

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 11: The US dollar is mixed as stock markets remain upbeat. President Trump touted slashing capital ta

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 11: The US dollar is mixed as stock markets remain upbeat. President Trump touted slashing capital tax cuts and falling coronavirus cases are boosting sentiment. Various data points are eyed.The fiscal impasse continues: Republicans and Democrats are open to returning to the negotiating table but have yet to resume talks. President Donald Trump's coronavirus executive order on unemployment benefits includes participation from states – which are struggling with debt, and that may not work. Sino-American tensions: The US condemned Hong Kong's arrest of Jimmy Lai, a local pro-democracy media mogul. China slapped sanctions against Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in response to America's moves against Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam. Markets are more concerned about the trade deal. Negotiators will take stock of the deal later this week.Trump touted cutting capital gains taxes, claiming it could boost jobs and reversing his stance on the topic. He previously said it would not help the middle class, but now the White House is considering an executive order. His words supported stocks. US coronavirus cases rose by fewer than 50,000 in Monday's tally, potentially a result of the "weekend effect" yet still confirming the downtrend. Infections are stable or falling in most states, potentially allowing for the economy to pick up. US Producer prices are due out later in the day.GBP/USD is edging lower after mixed UK jobs figures. While the unemployment rate remained at a low 3.9% in June, jobless claims jumped y 94,400 in July.  The British Retail Consortium's retail sales figures have shown an increase of 4.3% year on year, while Barclaycard said consumption is 2.6% lower than last year. The figures represent a return to normality. EUR/USD is trading around 1.1750 amid rising slowly rising COVID-19 cases in the old continent. Germany's reproduction rate has topped 1 in the past week, causing concerns. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for August are set to show a minor drop after bouncing from the lows in previous months.AUD/USD is moving up toward 0.72, extending its recovery as new coronavirus cases in Victoria state have somewhat declined. NZD/USD is benefiting from the risk-on mood and has topped 0.66. Gold has been extending its downtrend, seemingly a profit-taking move. XAU/USD is nearing $2,000. Silver is holding up above $28. WTI oil is trading above $42, amid market optimism. Cryptocurrencies are consolidating gains, with Bitcoin trading below $12,000. More What is driving the dollar up again is as much big player positioning as any single data set

United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate dipped from previous 7.3% to -2.2% in July

United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at -1.2% below forecasts (-1.1%) in June

United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at -0.2%, below expectations (-0.1%) in June

United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) below forecasts (-0.1%) in June: Actual (-1.2%)

United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) came in at 3.9% below forecasts (4.2%) in June

United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 94.4K above expectations (10K) in July

The UK was expected to report an increase of the unemployment rate to 4.2% in June from 3.9% in May. Economists estimated that wages would fall 1.1% y

The UK was expected to report an increase of the unemployment rate to 4.2% in June from 3.9% in May. Economists estimated that wages would fall 1.1% year on year when including bonuses in June, a sharper fall than 0.3% in May. Excluding extra pay, a drop of 0.1% was on the cards, compared with an increase of 0.7% beforehand.  The Claimant Count Change – also known as jobless claims – carried expectations for an increase of 10,000 in July after a drop of 28,100 in June. GBP/USD was trading steadily below 1.31 ahead of the publication, edging up amid some dollar weakness.

The UK's upcoming labor figures will likely remain robust thanks to the government's largesse – the furlough scheme is set to run through at least Oct

The UK's upcoming labor figures will likely remain robust thanks to the government's largesse – the furlough scheme is set to run through at least October. The pound needs only minor support to continue rising after the boost from the Bank of England (BoE), FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “Economists expect June's jobless rate to remain at 3.9%, and after three months of positive surprises, that makes perfect sense.”  “If Britain's official unemployment rate remains depressed, it would support the pound. An increase to 4% would likely be shrugged off, while only 4.1% or higher – returning to levels seen in 2018 – would be worrying.” “The second significant statistic is Claimant Count Change which is for July, a more recent figure shot above one million in April and hit around half a million in May. However, after these two terrible months, applications dropped by 28,1000 in June. The ongoing gradual reopening in July has likely pushed claims lower despite the hiccups in Leicester and later Manchester and other areas. It would take a substantial increase in monthly applications to send sterling lower.”  “An upbeat or an employment report that meets expectations could continue supporting the pound. The wind is blowing in favor of sterling after the BoE painted a relatively rosy picture. A truly horrible report – potentially a mix of a leap in June's unemployment rate and a surge in July's claims is needed to change the picture.”  

USD/CHF trims initial losses while picking up bids near 0.9152 during the pre-European session on Tuesday. The pair broke a four-day-old ascending tre

USD/CHF recovers from 0.9148 after breaking one-week-old ascending trend channel.Buyers will wait for entries unless stepping back inside the channel formation.The weekly low can offer immediate support ahead of 0.9100 round-figures.USD/CHF trims initial losses while picking up bids near 0.9152 during the pre-European session on Tuesday. The pair broke a four-day-old ascending trend channel formation but 200-hour EMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of its August 03-05 downside triggered its latest pullback. Even so, bearish MACD challenges the optimism while also highlighting the channel’s support line, at 0.9160. If at all the pair manages to cross 0.9160, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.9168 could gain market attention. However, bulls’ ability to cross 0.9168 will swiftly cross 0.9200 to attack the channel’s upper line, currently around 0.9210. Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.9147 support confluence will direct the sellers towards the weekly low near 0.9122 and then to the 0.9100 threshold. In a case where the bears command past-0.9100, Wednesday’s multi-month low of 0.9050 will be the key ahead of 0.9000 psychological magnet. USD/CHF hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, NZD/USD could attempt a move to the 0.6520 area in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “After dropping

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, NZD/USD could attempt a move to the 0.6520 area in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “After dropping sharply last Friday (07 Aug), NZD traded in a relatively quiet manner between 0.6578 and 0.6611 yesterday (10 Aug). While downward momentum is lackluster, there is room for NZD to edge lower towards 0.6560. For today, the next support at 0.6540 is not expected to come into the picture. Resistance is at 0.6610 but the stronger level is at 0.6625.” Next 1-3 weeks: “In our latest update for NZD from last Friday (07 Aug, spot at 0.6685), we noted that ‘while upward momentum has improved a tad but the prospect for a sustained break of 0.6710 Is not high’. We added, ‘only a daily closing above 0.6755 would indicate that NZD has moved into a fresh positive phase’. While our doubt about the start of a fresh positive was not wrong, we did not quite anticipate the subsequent sharp sell-off that sent NZD plunging by -1.29% on Friday, its biggest 1-day decline in 2 months. For now, it is too early to expect a major reversal but the late July peak of 0.6716 is likely a short-term top and this level may not come back into the picture for the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile, NZD is expected to trade with a downward bias towards 0.6520. On the upside, a break of 0.6660 would indicate the current mild downward pressure has eased.”

According to preliminary data for Gold futures from CME Group, traders increased their open interest positions by nearly 1.2K contracts on Monday, rev

According to preliminary data for Gold futures from CME Group, traders increased their open interest positions by nearly 1.2K contracts on Monday, reversing at the same time three consecutive daily drops. On the other hand, volume extended the choppy activity and went down by around 167.4K contracts. Gold could slip back to the $1,980 area Prices of the ounce troy of Gold remain in corrective-mode following recent all-time highs near $2,080 (August 7). Rising open interest amidst Monday’s negative price action suggests that further downside lies ahead, with the potential target at the Fibo level (of the July-August rally) near $1,980 per ounce.

Cable has likely moved into a consolidation scheme between 1.2950 and 1.3160 for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-

Cable has likely moved into a consolidation scheme between 1.2950 and 1.3160 for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP had a relatively choppy session yesterday as it reversed an initial sharp decline to 1.3020 before snapping higher to 1.3103. Indicators are showing ‘mixed’ signals and for today, GBP could trade in a choppy manner between 1.3030 and 1.3130.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We held a positive view in GBP since mid-July. In our latest narrative from last Thursday (06 Aug, spot at 1.3125), we highlighted that ‘the positive phase is still intact but GBP has to move clearly above 1.3200 before further sustained advance can be expected’. GBP subsequently rose to 1.3185 before plummeting by -0.71% last Friday, its biggest 1-day drop in 6 weeks. The sharp drop amidst overbought conditions indicates that 1.3185 is likely a short-term top. While GBP is likely to drift lower from here, any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.2950/1.3160 consolidation. Only a clear break below 1.2950 would indicate that GBP is ready for a deeper pullback.”  

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading slightly on the defensive in the mid-93.00s following the closing bell in the Asi

DXY meets resistance around 93.70 at the beginning of the week.US fiscal stimulus bills still stuck among discussions.NFIB Index, Producer Prices next of relevance in the docket.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading slightly on the defensive in the mid-93.00s following the closing bell in the Asian markets. US Dollar Index looks to politics, US-China tensions The index is now giving away part of the recent gains following two consecutive daily advances, while the rebound from last week’s YTD lows near 92.50 appears to have met resistance the 93.70 region. In the meantime, market participants continue to look to the US political scenario, where Republicans and Democrats are still debating a new fiscal stimulus package to counteract the impact of the coronavirus on the economy. Later in the US docket, the NFIB Index is due seconded by July’s Producer Prices and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil supplies. What to look for around USD The dollar managed to leave behind the area of +2-year lows near 92.50 in the second half of last week, managing to reclaim the area well above 93.00 afterwards. Occasional bullish attempts, however, appears to have run out of favour in the 94.00 region (August 3). Looking at the broader picture, investors keep the bearish stance on the dollar unchanged against the usual backdrop of a dovish Fed, the unabated advance of the pandemic and somewhat diminishing momentum in the economic recovery, while renewed US-China effervescence appears to have lent some oxygen to the currency as of late. On another front, the speculative community remained well into the negative territory for yet another week, supporting the view that a more serious bearish trend could be shaping up around the dollar. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is losing 0.09% at 93.53 and faces the next support at 92.52 (2020 low Aug.6) seconded by 91.80 (monthly low May 18) and finally 89.23 (monthly low April 2018). On the other hand, a break above 93.99 (weekly high Aug.3) would target 94.20 (38.2% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) en route to 96.03 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop).

Shares in Asia rise the most in one week after witnessing a bumpy start on Monday. To portray the same, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Ja

Asian equities print gains as traders in Tokyo return from extended weekend.Hopes of further stimulus from the US, no change in the Sino-American trade deal favor the bulls.Economic calendar stays quiet but risk factors are worth watching.Shares in Asia rise the most in one week after witnessing a bumpy start on Monday. To portray the same, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan prints 0.92% gains while Japan’s Nikkei 225 surges over 1.85% to 22,745 ahead of Tuesday’s European session. With the economic calendar be mostly quiet, except for downbeat Singapore GDP and Australian Payroll update, market sentiment relies on the qualitative catalysts. In doing so, the reduction in the US hospitalization for the first time in a week joins upbeat comments from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor to portray the risk-on momentum. Also supporting the mood could be the Japanese traders’ reaction to the recently increasing expectations of the US coronavirus (COVID-19) phase 4 stimulus package. As a result, the traders pay a little heed to the Sino-American tension that recently announced the US attempts to raise bars for Chinese securities’ listings and terming Hong Kong goods as “made in China”. While portraying the mood, ASX 200 gains 0.50% to 6,140 but New Zealand’s NZX 50 losses the same amount ahead of the key RBNZ that bears downbeat consensus. Further, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng becomes the market leader with 2.50% of gains to 24,987 whereas India’s BSE Sensex, South Korea’s KOSPI and Indonesia’s IDX Composite follow the order with receding gains. It should also be noted that the US 10-year Treasury yields also print the market optimism while rising 1.1 basis points (bps) to 0.585% while S&P 500 Futures add 0.28% gains to 3,362 by the time of writing. Considering the lack of major data/events, other than the UK employment data and the US Producers Price Index, market players will keep eyes on the US-China headlines and stimulus news for fresh impulse.

Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook below forecasts (48.2) in July: Actual (36)

Although the US dollar fades the upside momentum, after rising for two days, gold prices print a three-day losing streak while declining to $2,016.60,

Although the US dollar fades the upside momentum, after rising for two days, gold prices print a three-day losing streak while declining to $2,016.60, down 0.56% on a day, ahead of Tuesday’s European session. The reason could be traced from the market’s rush to equities that are cheering the hopes of further stimulus from the US. In doing so, the yellow metal ignores the US-China tussle as well as the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes. Recently, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) quoted American notice to convey that the goods made in Hong Kong for export to the United States will have to be labeled “Made in China” after September 25. Our Technical Confluences Indicator also highlights the sluggish moves by gold even as it trades beyond the key support around $2,015 comprising previous low on 4H, 1H and Pivot Point 1 S1. As a result, bears are waiting for a clear break below $2,015 to aim for the $2,000 threshold. Alternatively, SMA 10 on an hourly chart restricts the bullion’s immediate upside around $2,025 ahead of minor resistances near $2,028 and $2,030. Though, the precious metal’s rise beyond $2,030 will have to cross 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the weekly chart, near $2,032, to aim for the further upside. Here’s how it looks: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current came in at 41.1 below forecasts (46.6) in July

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD could have now entered into a consolidative phase. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “EUR dropped to 1.1734 during la

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD could have now entered into a consolidative phase. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “EUR dropped to 1.1734 during late NY session before ending the day on a soft note at 1.1736 (-0.42%). Downward momentum has improved, albeit not by much. That said, the bias from here is titled to the downside towards 1.1700. The next support at 1.1670 is unlikely to come into the picture. Resistance is at 1.1760 but only a move above 1.1785 would indicate the current mild downward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Tuesday (04 Aug, spot at 1.1760), we held the view that ‘the 3-week positive phase has run its course’ and we expected EUR to ‘trade sideways between 1.1600 and 1.1900’. After EUR popped higher, we indicated on Thursday (06 Aug, spot at 1.1870) that ‘upward momentum is beginning to improve but only a daily closing above 1.1930 would indicate that EUR is ready for 1.2000’. EUR subsequently eked out a fresh high of 1.1915 but was unable to hold on to its gains. The swift and relatively sharp decline last Friday suggests that 1.1915 could be a short-term top. While EUR is likely to trade below 1.1915 for the next couple of weeks, any weakness is viewed as part of a broad 1.1600/1.1880 range. In other words, barring a sharp and sudden pick up in downward momentum, any weakness in EUR is likely to be slow and a sustained decline below 1.1600 is unlikely.”

While flashing another red signal concerning the US-China trade relations, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) quotes US government notice while sayin

While flashing another red signal concerning the US-China trade relations, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) quotes US government notice while saying, Goods made in Hong Kong for export to the United States will have to be labeled “Made in China” after September 25. Key quotes The move, in accordance with the suspension of the Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 and the invoking of US President Donald Trump’s executive order on ‘Hong Kong Normalization’ will see Hong Kong companies subjected to the same trade war tariffs levied on mainland exporters, should they make products subject to these duties. A notice will be published on the US Federal Register on August 11, stipulating that ‘45 days after the date of publication’ goods ‘must be marked to indicate that their origin is ‘China’. The move is ‘due to the determination that Hong Kong is no longer sufficiently autonomous to justify differential treatment in relation to China’. The confirmation of a move implied by Trump’s previous legislation is another blow to Hong Kong’s struggling economy and to the high-value, if low-volume base of exporters in the city. Goods that fail to comply will face a punitive 10 percent duty at US ports. FX implications The news weighs on the market sentiment while trimming the recent gains of the S&P 500 Futures and Asia-Pacific stocks. However, these risk catalysts remain in the positive territory while cheering the increasing odds of the US stimulus.

AUD/USD stays well bid while refreshing the intraday high to 0.7186, currently around 0.7183, during the pre-European session on Tuesday. The aussie p

AUD/USD refreshes intraday high while bouncing off 0.7139.Bullish MACD, recovery from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement favor buyers.Multiple upside resistances to challenge the bulls past-0.7200.AUD/USD stays well bid while refreshing the intraday high to 0.7186, currently around 0.7183, during the pre-European session on Tuesday. The aussie pair recently bounced off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its August 03/07 upside. However, the bulls are jostling with 100-HMA to mark further upside. With the bullish MACD signals joining the pair’s repeated bounces off the key Fibonacci retracement level, the pair buyers are likely to cross the immediate resistance around 0.7188 and regain 0.7200 mark during the further rise. Though, 0.7215 and the monthly high near 0.7240/45 can challenge the bulls before pushing them to the year 2019 top surrounding 0.7300. Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.7140 comprising 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement, could recall 0.7100 round-figures on the chart. In a case where the bears dominate past-0.7100, a confluence of July 24 low and June 10 high near 0.7065/60 could restrict the pair’s additional weakness. AUD/USD hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

GBP/USD picks up the bids near 1.3090, up 0.11% on a day, while heading into the London open on Tuesday. The Cable extends Monday’s winning streak des

GBP/USD keeps gains from 1.3065 despite the latest pullback from 1.3096.UK Consumer Spending recovers in July, London-Tokyo trade talks linger.No10 vows action on illegal French fishers, BOE’s Ramsden signal further QE if the economy worsensUS dollar fades upside momentum, market sentiment stays positive despite risk-negative headlines.GBP/USD picks up the bids near 1.3090, up 0.11% on a day, while heading into the London open on Tuesday. The Cable extends Monday’s winning streak despite downbeat comments from the BOE policymaker as well as Brexit woes. The reason could be spotted from the US dollar’s pullback after rising for two consecutive days. Though, the traders remain cautious ahead of the key UK employment numbers for July that may please the pair buyers. Early in Asia, the Bank of England (BOE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden showed readiness on the part of the “Old Lady” to escalate the Quantitative Easing (QE) if the economy falters again. The BOE recently raised its economic forecasts during last Thursday's monetary policy meeting but struck a cautious tone. Also on the negative side is the Daily Express news suggesting the UK government has vowed to take action against illegal French fishermen at the conclusion of the EU transition period. The same worsens odds of a good Brexit at a time when the talks are struggling for a pace. On the other hand, the UK-Japan trade negotiations also stuck on Monday whereas British PM Boris Johnson’s readiness to recall the lockdown flashed red signals for the coronavirus (COVID-19) watchers. It should also be noted that Reuters relied on the data from Barclaycard and the British Retail Consortium to convey that British consumers spent the most last month since the country went into a coronavirus lockdown in March, as pubs, restaurants, barbers and beauty salons reopened. Alternatively, US President Donald Trump’s executive orders pushed China to retaliate by sanctioning 11 American diplomats. However, the positive impacts, concerning the increased odds a stimulus, were majorly followed. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures and stocks in Asia-Pacific flash gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields rise one basis point to 0.584% by the press time. The same cool down the US dollar index (DXY) that grew during the last two days. Looking forward, the UK employment data will be the key for the GBP/USD pair traders as bulls will analyze the clues of the recent economic restart and stimulus to foresee near-term moves of the pair. Forecasts suggest the headline Unemployment Rate rise to 4.2% from 3.9% and join the downbeat comments from the BOE policymaker’s to challenge the latest upside moves. Read: UK Jobs Preview: Feeble figures still furloughed? Another robust report may boost BOE-fueled rally Following the UK data, risk catalysts will be in the spotlight amid a light calendar.l Technical analysis While overbought RSI conditions could be spotted for the pair’s inability to rise, 10-day EMA and an ascending trend line from April 14, respectively near 1.3035 and 1.3000, offer strong downside support to challenge the sellers. Even so, buyers are likely to remain cautious unless successfully breaking 1.3200 mark comprising March month high.  

EUR/USD closed below the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) for the second straight trading day on Monday, establishing the widely-tracked short-term

EUR/USD finds acceptance under key SMA, charts double top pattern. German ZEW Survey is forecasted to show slight decline in economic sentiment. The focus would also be on US stimulus talks and Sino-US tussle. EUR/USD closed below the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) for the second straight trading day on Monday, establishing the widely-tracked short-term SMA as resistance for the first time since June 25.  While the 10-day MA is now sidelined near 1.1798, the 5-day SMA is trending south for the first time since June 5. Also, the pair looks to have carved out a double top pattern on the daily chart. All this indicates the bullish trend has run out of steam.  German ZEW survey eyed ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are scheduled for release at 09:00 GMT.  The German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which measures the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and pessimistic, is forecasted to have dropped to 58.00 in August from July's 59.3. A below-forecast print would strengthen the case for a notable pullback put forward by technical studies.  Later in the day, the focus would shift to the US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jul) and Producer Price Index (July).  Apart from the macro data releases, the pair could take cues from the US Congress' discussions and negotiations regarding the next federal stimulus package. President Trump said on Monday that that top congressional Democrats wanted to meet him for discussing virus-related economic relief, reviving hopes for additional stimulus. Also, news flow related to the lingering US-China tensions could influence demand for the safe-haven US dollar. At press time, the pair is trading largely unchanged on the day at 1.1747. Technical levels  

GBP/CAD drops to 1.7445 during the early Tuesday. The pair recently slipped below an ascending trend line from July 23 to portray a third day of losse

GBP/CAD prints three-day losing streak with latest U-turn from 1.7506.One-week-old falling trend line, break of short-term support line favor sellers.Bulls will have a bumpy road even after the monthly high.GBP/CAD drops to 1.7445 during the early Tuesday. The pair recently slipped below an ascending trend line from July 23 to portray a third day of losses. Additionally, a downward sloping trend line from July 31 and normal RSI conditions also weigh on the quote. As a result, the monthly low near 1.7350 becomes the sellers’ first choice ahead of 50% Fibonacci retracement of July 16-31 upside, at 1.7304. However, the pair’s downside past-1.7304 will be challenged by 1.7260 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.7215. Alternatively, an upside break of the immediate resistance line, at 1.7475 will attack the support-turned-resistance trend line, at 1.7500, during the fresh pullback. However, the monthly top near 1.7590 and July 31 peak surrounding 1.7676 will stop the bulls prior to diverting them towards highs marked in May and late-March around 1.7705 and 1.7800 respectively. GBP/CAD four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Rating agencies Moody's and Fitch have reportedly said that the European Union's (EU) recent decision to issue €750 billion of bonds to fund its effor

Rating agencies Moody's and Fitch have reportedly said that the European Union's (EU) recent decision to issue €750 billion of bonds to fund its effort to reverse the coronavirus-induced slowdown poses no immediate threat to bloc's AAA rating.  The EU's ratings are a reflection of the fact that borrowings are direct and unconditional obligations of the EU, guaranteed through the EU budget by all EU member states, according to the European Commission. 

The path of least resistance for EUR/CHF appears to be on the downside. On Monday, the pair faced rejection at 1.0793 and ended with marginal losses a

EUR/CHF looks south after creating an inverted hammer on Monday. The pair risks falling to the immediate support located at 1.0712.The path of least resistance for EUR/CHF appears to be on the downside.  On Monday, the pair faced rejection at 1.0793 and ended with marginal losses at 1.0746, forming an inverted bearish hammer candle and validating or confirming the buyer exhaustion signaled by the repeated bull failure at 1.0838 seen over the past two weeks.  Put simply, Monday’s inverted hammer has titled the bias in favor of the bears, opening the doors for a decline to the July 24 low of 1.0712.  The daily chart slow stochastic indicator is also reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 print.  A close above 1.0793 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels

Japan's current account surplus narrowed to the lowest level in five years in June as exports took a hit due to the coronavirus-induced destruction of

Japan's current account surplus narrowed to the lowest level in five years in June as exports took a hit due to the coronavirus-induced destruction of global demand conditions.    The current account surplus was JPY 167.5 billion ($1.58 billion), the smallest monthly surplus since January 2015, a finance ministry official said on Tuesday, according to Reuters.    While the actual figure bettered the median forecast for a JPY 110 billion surplus, it marked a significant deterioration from a JPY 1.177 trillion surplus in May. The current account has posted monthly surpluses for six straight years.    Exports plunged 25.7% in June from a year ago, having declined by 28.9% in May, while imports dropped an annual 14.4%, following a 27.7% annual fall in May. 

USD/CAD is trading near 1.3330 at press time, representing a 0.15% decline on the day. The bulls failed to clear the psychological hurdle of 1.34 on M

USD/CAD's key SMA studies have produced a death cross. SMA crosses are lagging indicators and often trap traders on the wrong side of the market.USD/CAD is trading near 1.3330 at press time, representing a 0.15% decline on the day. The bulls failed to clear the psychological hurdle of 1.34 on Monday.  The daily chart shows the 50-day simple moving average (SMS) has crossed under the 200-day SMA, confirming the so-called death cross, a long-term bearish indicator.  The death cross, however, is based on backward-looking averages and tends to lag prices. As such, it is often considered a contrarian indicator.  In addition, the slow stochastic has created higher lows contradicting lower lows on the price chart. That bullish divergence is suggestive of the ebbing of downward momentum. A similar sentiment is being echoed by the long tail attached to the previous week’s candle.  All in all, the odds appear stacked in favor of a stronger corrective bounce, possibly to the 50-day SMA, currently at 1.3496. The case for a notable bounce would weaken if the spot finds acceptance under the Aug. 5 low of 1.3233.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels

NZD/USD takes the bids near 0.6610, up 0.34% on a day, amid early Tuesday’s trading. In doing so, the kiwi pair snaps the previous two days’ downside

NZD/USD becomes the bull’s favorite after bouncing off 0.6584.Normal RSI conditions, two-month-old support line favor the buyers.July month’s high becomes the key upside barrier.NZD/USD takes the bids near 0.6610, up 0.34% on a day, amid early Tuesday’s trading. In doing so, the kiwi pair snaps the previous two days’ downside but stays below 21-day SMA immediate resistance. Other than the 21-day SMA level of 0.6625, the monthly top near 0.6690 and July 31 peak surrounding 0.6715/20 will also challenge the bulls during the pair’s further upside. On the contrary, sellers will refrain from entries unless the quote drops below an ascending trend line from June 02, at 0.6570 now. Following that, June 23 high of 0.6534 will be on their radars. If at all the NZD/USD prices stay weak below 0.6530, 0.6450 and June month’s bottom close to 0.6385 will return to the charts. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Australian shares have been climbing on Tuesday, scoring the highest levels since mid-June. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 index is trading almos

ASX 200 climbs to resistance last seen in June of this year.Financial stocks and miners are performing well on the session.Australian shares have been climbing on Tuesday, scoring the highest levels since mid-June. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 index is trading almost 1% higher at 6170, travelling from a low of 6110.  A measure of Australian business conditions rose in July as the service sector rebounded from a national lockdown, but confidence was badly hit by a renewed outbreak of coronavirus in the second most populous state of Victoria. National Australia Bank's NAB index of business conditions bounced to 0 in July, from -8 in June. That was up from a low of -34 in April at the height of the pandemic and nearer to the long-run average of +6. However, the survey's measure of business confidence fell back to -14 in July, from 0 in June, though it remained well above the April trough of -46. "Conditions have now recovered to be broadly around their pre-COVID level with improvements across the country," said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster Financial stocks lifting all boats Meanwhile, heavyweight financial stocks rallied on the news that the country's second-most populous state-reported a small rise in new COVID-19 infections, lifting investor sentiment. Australian banks have taken the financial sub-index.AXFJ higher by 1.2% to its highest since July 30. Reuters reports that daily infections in Victoria peaked at 725 on Aug. 5 and have been trending lower in recent days, following the imposition of a hard lockdown in Melbourne on July 19. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA, which is slated to report is annual results on Wednesday climbed 1.7%, while the rest of its "Big Four" have added between 2% and 2.3%. Miners follow in suit Mining stocks.have also climbed 0.8% with the world's fourth-largest iron ore miner, Fortescue Metals Group FMG, adding nearly 2% to hit a record high after it won a tender to supply Chinese steelmaker HBIS Group.   Industrial metals were also stronger, with copper and aluminium leading the sector higher. The prospects of additional stimulus packages helped support sentiment in commodity markets. Nevertheless, we have seen some sectors struggling to keep their head above water. Precious metals ended lower, with gold falling.  ASX 200 levels The index is now at a crossroads in the 6170s where it meets daily and weekly resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the 2020 sell-off.  6055 is ket support here. Howevere, a break back below the 20-week moving average would open te case for a continuation to the downside.     

Analysts at Citigroup offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision, which will

Analysts at Citigroup offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision, which will be followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference. Key quotes “RBNZ ... policy will be left unchanged but risks are dovish. Activity data since the last forecast in May has recovered sufficiently to justify an upward revision to growth forecasts. However, of greater focus for markets will be the RBNZ's review of its monetary policy tools -especially around the potential to adjust the LSAP (currently NZD60bn), purchasing foreign assets or implementing negative interest rate policy Seasonality shows that there is more risk avoidance in August than in other months, and in the G10 currency space NZD tends to fall in line with AUD This is an anomaly, and we see no clear reason for this type of seasonality. However, with a general election due in September, if the market environment this year changes to risk-off again, the probability that NZD will depreciate over the next month, even if only temporarily, is likely to get higher.”

WTI prints gains on renewed hopes for additional US stimulus. China's factory deflation eased in July, adding to bullish pressure around oil. The Ame

WTI prints gains on renewed hopes for additional US stimulus. China's factory deflation eased in July, adding to bullish pressure around oil. The American benchmark for the sweet light crude gained ground during Tuesday’s Asian trading hours in hopes for additional US coronavirus stimulus and signs of recovery in China, the world’s second-largest economy.  At press time, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading near $42.15, representing 0.5% gain. Prices rose by nearly 1% on Monday.  The black gold picked up a bid after President Trump tweeted Monday that top congressional Democrats wanted to meet him for discussing virus-related economic relief. The talks between Democrats and the Trump administration broke down last week, according to Reuters.  And yet hopes for additional stimulus may not be the only reason for the uptick in oil. Additional bullish pressure looks to be stemming from comments made by Saudi Aramco on Sunday that oil demand is rebounding in Asia with the gradual reopening of economies.  In addition, oil markets seem to be cheering the upbeat China producer price index (PPI) released on Monday, which showed factory deflation eased for the second month in July.  Gains, however, could be capped by lingering US-China tensions. As per the latest reports, China has unveiled a slew of policies to help boost the domestic semiconductor industry. The move comes after the US’ latest sanctions on Huawei exposed China’s reliance on external chipmakers.  Technical levels  

AUD/JPY stays well bid as bulls attack 76.00, currently near 75.95, during the early Tuesday’s trading. The pair gains 0.25% as it defies the previous

AUD/JPY extends recovery moves from 75.68 despite mixed NAB data from Australia.NAB Business Conditions recovered, Business Confidence slumped in July.Market cheers return of Japanese traders, hopes of further stimulus.AUD/JPY stays well bid as bulls attack 76.00, currently near 75.95, during the early Tuesday’s trading. The pair gains 0.25% as it defies the previous declines while preferring to cheer the risk-on mood versus mixed Aussie data. National Australia’s Bank’s (NAB) Business Confidence slumped below +1 previous to -14 whereas Business Conditions grew beyond -7 prior to 0 in July. Additionally, payroll updates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) also got a little attention from the AUD traders. The ABS recently said, “Nationally, payroll jobs remained 4.5% below mid-March.” The data fails to weigh on the pair as the market’s risk-tone sentiment remains positive. While returning from Monday’s Mountain Day off, Japanese traders cheer increased hopes of the US stimulus following President Donald Trump’s executive orders. In doing so, the market players ignore the escalations in the US-China tussle as well as the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes. In retaliation to the American sanctions, Beijing also raised bars for 11 US diplomats. This pushes the American leader to say that phase one deal with China means “very little” to him now. Elsewhere, Australia’s Victoria continues to struggle with the pandemic as death toll refreshes record high with 331 figures. On the other hand, Japan also bears the negative impacts of the deadly virus as Kyodo said, Japan's total coronavirus cases topped 50,000 Monday, increasing by 10,000 in just one week, as urban centers including Tokyo and Osaka continue to see high levels of infections since the central government fully lifted the nationwide state of emergency in late May. Amid all these catalysts, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises 1.5% whereas Australia’s ASX 200 adds 1.0% gains. Further, S&P 500 Futures also prints mild gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields rise one basis point to 0.58% by the press time. Traders may now keep eyes on Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey data for immediate direction while paying more attention to the risk catalysts. Technical analysis Unless declining back below 75.30, comprising an ascending trend line from June 12, the pair can keep trying to refresh the monthly high near 76.45.  

According to the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), payroll jobs nationwide remained steady through July while Victor

According to the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), payroll jobs nationwide remained steady through July while Victoria saw a fall. Additional details "Payroll jobs fell 1.5% in Victoria through July ahead of the introduction of stage 4 COVID-19 restrictions." "Nationally, payroll jobs remained 4.5% below mid-March." The data comes ahead of the official monthly jobs report due this Thursday, with the country’s unemployment rate likely to jump to 7.8% in the reported month. Market reaction AUD/USD picked-up fresh bids on the NAB Business Survey and the above data release, now challenging daily highs near 0.7165, up 0.27% on a daily basis.

AUD/USD has been consolidating Friday’s decline in a mere 0.7147-73 range while the US dollar stages a moderate comeback following a marginal move hig

AUD/USD has been consolidating Friday’s decline in a mere 0.7147-73 range while the US dollar stages a moderate comeback following a marginal move higher in real yields on Friday. At the time of writing the commodity, the currency is barely higher at 0.7158 vs the dollar after a slight chop in a mostly lacklustre time on Wall Street.   AUD/USD was choppy at times but at 0.7150, it is barely changed from Friday’s fall. In recent trade, we have seen Australia NAB business confidence -14 (prior 1) and business conditions 0 (prior -7). The data has had little bearing on the currency, although it has ticked higher to score the high for the session. Meanwhile, with the conservative approach from the Reserve Bank of Australia all digested and done for the time being, its a focus back to the greenback and Sino/US trade tensions.  China sanctioned 11 US officials in retaliation to similar moves made by the US against Chinese officials last week, although there was little reaction to this.Yi Gang, governor of PBoC: China to continue implementing phase-one trade agreementMeanwhile, the hope of further stimulus packages has been helping to support sentiment in commodity markets. Metals recovered much of the lost ground seen Friday, with copper rebounding 1.5% to $6,401 and aluminium up 0.68% to $1,783.    The ANZ China Commodity Index was ending Monday’s session up 0.1%. Nevertheless, it was a cautious move higher, with some sectors struggling to keep their head above water, analysts at ANZ bank said. Precious metals ended lower, with gold falling. Bulk commodities were also weaker, with iron ore and coking coal coming under pressure. Agriculture inched lower, weighed down by falls in palm oil and cotton. Crude oil gained, along with natural gas. Industrial metals were also stronger, with copper and aluminium leading the sector higher. AUD/USD levels AUD/USD continues to hover over the near-term uptrend at 0.7147 with bullish bets on a run to the 200-week ma at 0.7257 and the 55-month moving average at 0.7284, as noted by analysts at Commerzbank. If seen, we would allow this to again hold as we note the diverging RSI. Above 0.7284 lies the 0.7394. We have the December high at 0.7031 and the 4-month uptrend at.6905. Key support is offered by 0.6778/74, the February high and mid-June low. This latter level is reinforced by the 200-day ma at .6707.    

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence down to -14 in July from previous 1

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions up to 0 in July from previous -7

WH Adviser O'Brien: US is 'deeply troubled' by arrest of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai developing story ...

WH Adviser O'Brien: US is 'deeply troubled' by arrest of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai   developing story ...

Trend: Bearish Technical levels XAU/USD Overview Today last price 2019.9 Today Daily Change -7.70 Today Daily Change % -0.38 Today daily open 2027.6

Gold is feeling the pull of gravity during Tuesday's Asian trading hours.Gold's daily chart stochastic has diverged in favor of the bears. RSI continues to report overbought conditions with an above-70 print. Gold is trading in the red near $2,017 per ounce at press time, having put in a record high of $2,075 on Aug. 7.    The pullback has confirmed the bearish divergence of the daily chart slow stochastic indicator. A bearish divergence occurs when an indicator prints lower highs against higher highs on price and is widely considered a sign of ebbing of bullish momentum.   The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is also echoing similar sentiment with an above-70 or overbought reading.    The yellow metal risks falling to the ascending 10-day simple moving average (SMA) support located at $2,007. A violation there would expose the psychological support of $2,000.    On the higher side, the hourly chart lower high of $2,049 is the level to beat for the bulls. A break higher would open the doors for a re-test of the record high of $2,075.    Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.9711 versus Monday's fix at 6.9649.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.9711 versus Monday's fix at 6.9649.

EUR/JPY picks up the bids near 124.48, up 0.07% on a day, during the early Tuesday’s trading. The quote recently recovered from July 22 top, also comp

EUR/JPY snaps two-day losing streak while recovering from 124.34.July 22 high offers immediate support, 125.00 becomes nearby resistance to watch.21-day SMA and three-month-old support line add to the downside barriers.EUR/JPY picks up the bids near 124.48, up 0.07% on a day, during the early Tuesday’s trading. The quote recently recovered from July 22 top, also comprising the lowest levels in a week, while disturbing the previous declines during Friday and Monday. Although MACD conditions are against the latest pullback, sellers will not risk taking entries unless the quote slips below 124.30, comprising the mentioned late-July top. Hence, bulls may eye 125.00 as an immediate target ahead of challenging the monthly peak surrounding 125.60. In a case where the buyers keep the reins past-125.60, the 126.00 threshold will be on their radars. Meanwhile, a 21-day SMA level of 123.78 will precede the ascending trend line from May 07, at 123.00 now, to challenge the bears below 124.30. If at all the pair declines below 124.30 on a daily closing basis, the early-July peak close to 122.00 will lure the sellers. EUR/JPY daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (-13.2%) in 2Q

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (-42.9%) in 2Q

S&P 500 Futures rises to 3,354, up 0.05% on a day, during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Tuesday. The risk barometer recently picked up the bids as

S&P 500 Futures recover early-Asian session losses following its bounce off 3,347.The risk gauge cheers hopes of further stimulus, return of Japanese traders.Coronavirus woes, fears of escalating US-China tension gain a little attention.S&P 500 Futures rises to 3,354, up 0.05% on a day, during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Tuesday. The risk barometer recently picked up the bids as Japanese traders return after the extended weekend. Also supporting the mild optimism is increasing odds of the US stimulus. Traders from Tokyo welcome the US catalysts suggesting the break of stimulus deadlock while returning from Monday’s Mountain Day off. American President Donald Trump’s executive orders concerning the jobless claims and other help to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19) pushed Democratic Party members to return to the negotiation table for the much-awaited stimulus package. It should also be noted that the Republican leaders’ sanctioning of 11 Chinese diplomats and the banning of business with TikTok and WeChat strengthened the Washington-Beijing tension. In retaliation to the US moves, Beijing also increased hardships for 11 of the American diplomats. Though, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang struck an upbeat tone while saying “China will continue implementing the phase-one economic and trade agreement with the United States, while measures announced to open up china's financial sector will continue.” Following that, US President Trump exerted more pressure on the Asian major while saying phase one deal means “very little” to him. Against this backdrop, the market’s risk-tone remains mildly positive with Nikkei 225 rising over 1.00% to 22,568 while the US 10-year Treasury yields stay upbeat near 0.577% by the press time. Although the economic calendar in Asia remains silent, Japanese traders’ return will offer notable moves to the risk catalysts and offer an active session ahead.

Central banks across the globe have responded to the Covid-19 crisis by generating an unprecedented amount of cash. Notably, the cumulative balance sh

Central banks across the globe have responded to the Covid-19 crisis by generating an unprecedented amount of cash.    Notably, the cumulative balance sheet of G4 central banks - the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Banks - has expanded to $20 trillion, as noted by Jeroen Blokland, portfolio manager with Robeco.   The G4 balance sheet size has increased by $5 trillion this year. The dilutive impact of the surge in money supply has boded well for scarce assets like gold. The yellow metal recently rose to record highs near $2,090 and is currently up 33% on a year-to-date basis.   

GBP/NZD comes as a compelling trade on the back of a northerly projection into a key supply area. We have the reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday

GBP/NZD comes as a compelling trade on the back of a northerly projection into a key supply area.  We have the reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday and the longer-term outlook remains highly uncertain which leaves all options on the table. There should be some bearish headwinds for the bird on the back the meeting, although the pound is hardly a bullish prospect in the same regard. Nevertheless, there is some upside in the charts while the cross sits above the daily structure. However, a break to the downside opens prospects of a bearish head and shoulders and medium-term bearish play on the cards as illustrated in this top-down analysis.  Monthly chart The price has corrected back towards a high-level os supply and in the realms of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement target. Weekly prospects of a move back to higher volume Daily chart As illustrated, the price action can go higher while the pair holds above the structure. However, a break below will open the doors to a barroom brawl which should result in a downside move and form a bearish head and shoulders. GBP/JPY Head & Shoulders prospects

Silver prices drop to $28.78, down 1.11% on a day, amid the initial hour of Tokyo open on Tuesday. The white metal recently took a U-turn from $29.27

Silver bears attack lower-end of $28.66-$29.27 trading range.Bearish MACD, RSI conditions favor the sellers, short-term ascending trend lines restrict further declines.$30.00 becomes the key upside barrier beyond $29.30 immediate resistance.Silver prices drop to $28.78, down 1.11% on a day, amid the initial hour of Tokyo open on Tuesday. The white metal recently took a U-turn from $29.27 while keeping nearby trading range amid bearish MACD and downward sloping RSI conditions. However, multiple support lines stand tall to challenge the pair sellers and keep the bulls hopeful. Among the aforementioned support lines, one from August 05, at $28.58 now, gains the immediate market attention ahead of another downside barrier stretched from July 28, currently around $25.75. In between these trend-lines, July 28 top near $26.20 and $27.00 might entertain the bullion traders. On the upside, a downward sloping trend line from Friday, at $29.30 now, followed by $30.00 round-figures could restrict the metal’s immediate recovery moves. However, the precious metal’s ability to cross $30.00 on a daily closing basis enables it to aim for November 2012 bottom surrounding $30.65/70. Silver four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

EUR/USD retreats to 1.1735, having faced rejection above 1.19 last Thursday. The pair failed to keep gains above 1.19 on July 31. Daily chart now sho

EUR/USD retreats to 1.1735, having faced rejection above 1.19 last Thursday. The pair failed to keep gains above 1.19 on July 31. Daily chart now shows a double top pattern with neckline at 1.1696.   EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart with the neckline support at 1.1696 (Aug. 3 low).  A daily close below that level would confirm the double top breakdown and create room for a sell-off to 1.1475 (target as per the measured height method).  At press time, the pair is sidelined near 1.1735, having declined for the second straight trading day on Monday.  A move to the double top necklines support at 1.1696 looks likely with the recent candlestick arrangement signaling a bullish-to-bearish trend change and bearish divergences of the the 14-day relative strength index and the slow stochastic.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

USD/JPY takes the bids near 106.10 as Tokyo begins the week’s trading after enjoying Monday’s off due to the Mountain Day. In doing so, the pair print

USD/JPY prints three-day winning streak, trades near the one-week high flashed on Monday.US dollar remains on the front foot amid stimulus hopes, risk-off mood.Japanese traders return from an extended weekend with upbeat Trade Balance, Current Account data.Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey, risk catalysts remain in the spotlight.USD/JPY takes the bids near 106.10 as Tokyo begins the week’s trading after enjoying Monday’s off due to the Mountain Day. In doing so, the pair prints a three-day winning streak while challenging the highest levels since August 03. Although risk-tone remains sluggish, the broad US dollar strength lures the pair bulls. King Dollar dominates… The US dollar index (DXY) extends its recovery moves from over two-year low while rising to 93.65, up 0.03%, by the press time. US President Donald Trump’s executive orders recently renewed the US dollar strength after the banning of TikTok and WeChat joined the sanctions on 11 Chinese diplomats and unlocking the unemployment claims benefits together with other helps at home. Further favoring the greenback is the US-China tussle and hopes that the much-awaited hopes of a multi-trillion American stimulus will be out soon. China retaliated to the US moves of sanctioning their policymakers by increasing hardships for 11 American diplomats. However, the PBOC Governor struck an upbeat tone while saying, “China will continue implementing the phase-one economic and trade agreement with the United States, while measures announced to open up china's financial sector will continue.” Even so, US President Trump said that China phase one deal means “very little” to him. Elsewhere, the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes keep dominating with Australia’s Victoria marking another record-high death toll of 331 while infections in Japan also escalate. “Japan's total coronavirus cases topped 50,000 Monday, increasing by 10,000 in just one week, as urban centers including Tokyo and Osaka continue to see high levels of infections since the central government fully lifted the nationwide state of emergency in late May,” said Japan’s Kyodo news. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.10% to 3,350 whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 gains 0.84% to 22,530 by the press time. However, the US 10-year Treasury yields fail to extend the previous day’s run-up while taking rounds to 0.57% as we write. Further, Japan’s economic data flashed welcome signals as well. The Current Account for June rose well beyond ¥110 B forecast to ¥167.5B while Trade Balance - BOP Basis grew past-¥-556.8 B prior to ¥-77.3 B. On the contrary, Bank Lending slipped below 6.5% expected to 6.3% in July. Moving on, traders will take note of Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey data for July for immediate direction. Though, major attention will be given to the risk catalysts for fresh impetus. Technical analysis Having successfully broken a descending trend line from July 20, at 105.85 now, the pair aims to cross 21-day SMA level near 106.20 ahead of challenging the monthly top around 106.50. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 105.85 resistance-turned-support will recall 105.30 on the chart.  

The price of the pound vs the Japanese yen is an interesting trade considering both have been accumulating net longs in positioning data while the US

GBP/JPY bears waiting patiently for a signal below the currency daily support structure.Weekly downside target is compelling as the monthly chart meets the first critical resistance level.The price of the pound vs the Japanese yen is an interesting trade considering both have been accumulating net longs in positioning data while the US dollar now starts to correct higher. DXY 4hr double bottom The yen is renowned for its safe-haven qualities and the pound is a dubious bid in the face of a resurgence of geopolitical risks and the greenback.  The following is a top-down analysis depicting the prospects of a downside correction in the weekly resistance to weekly support. However, there is nothing to be had from a daily perspective until the following support structure illustrated is broken and retested mounting to a bearish impulse, bullish correction before the next wave to the downside.  Monthly chart The monthly chay shows that there was a strong level of support and the bulls have been in control since, targeting upside structure in a phase of accumulation. However, the price is already struggling at a prior support structure looking left and there should be resistance shown in the weekly chart. Weekly chart The weekly chart shows the price is at a resistance looking left to the double top and opens scope for a restest of the prior downside structure as illustrated within the chart above.  Daily chart The daily structure remains bullish, however, if the pound weakness and the support breaks, a retest of the level will be an opportunity for short to coincide with the weekly and monthly chart readings.

Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis rose from previous ¥-556.8B to ¥-77.3B in June

Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 6.3% below forecasts (6.5%) in July

Japan Current Account n.s.a. above forecasts (¥110B) in June: Actual (¥167.5B)

GBP/USD struggles to carry the previous day’s bounce off 10-day EMA. The Cable takes rounds to 1.3070 amid the pre-Tokyo open Asian session on Tuesday

GBP/USD seesaws in a choppy range between 1.3065 and 1.3080 off-late.Overbought RSI conditions limit short-term upside, sellers have strong supports to break before retaking controls.1.3200 become the key resistance, June high can please the bears during notable downside.GBP/USD struggles to carry the previous day’s bounce off 10-day EMA. The Cable takes rounds to 1.3070 amid the pre-Tokyo open Asian session on Tuesday. While overbought RSI conditions could be spotted for the pair’s inability to rise, 10-day EMA and an ascending trend line from April 14, respectively near 1.3035 and 1.3000, offer strong downside support to challenge the sellers. It should, however, be noted that the buyers are likely to remain cautious unless successfully breaking 1.3200 mark comprising March month high. Though, short-term recoveries to 1.3115 and 1.3185 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the pair’ declines below 1.3000 will enable the bears to aim for June month’s high near 1.2815 with 1.2900 acting as intermediate halt during the south-run. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Sideways  

While the US dollar’s strength could be traced to American President Donald Trump’s latest executive orders, WTI paid a little heed to the recent blas

USD/CAD extends recovery from 1.3333, prints third positive day in last four.US dollar keeps the recent strength as risk-tone heavies, stimulus hopes strengthens.WTI struggles to extend Monday’s gains despite blasts at the Iraq-Kuwait border.Canadian Housing Starts, US PPI will populate the economic calendar.USD/CAD picks up the bids near 1.3360 before Tokyo opens on Tuesday. The loonie pair recently gained traction as the US dollar rose on upbeat fundamentals while WTI finds it difficult to extend Monday’s recovery moves. While the US dollar’s strength could be traced to American President Donald Trump’s latest executive orders, WTI paid a little heed to the recent blast in the Middle East amid fears of escalating US-China tension and the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes. US President Trump’s sanction on the 11 Chinese diplomats, including Hong Kong leader Carry Liam, witnessed the same retaliation from Beijing. Following this, American leader Trump said phase one deal with China means “very little” to him. The update not only adds to the market’s risk-off mood but also weighs on the commodity demand and questions the energy buyers. Further challenging the oil prices are pandemic worries. Although new cases from the US have stabilized off-late, Australia’s Victoria keeps refreshing the record death toll, 331 is the latest one, to portray the side-effects of the deadly virus. It’s worth mentioning that some of the Asian countries, like India, are still grappling with the first round and the wave 2.0 could provide a larger than anticipated economic loss, which in turn can weigh on the energy demand. Other than the fundamental catalysts concerning Canada’s main export item crude oil, hopes of the US fiscal stimulus also have favored the pair’s latest upside. Following US President Trump’s executive orders to release unemployment claim benefits of $400, the opposition Democratic Party returns to the negotiation table. However, no clear dates for the COVID-19 relief package discussion are out yet. Amid all these plays, risk-tone remains heavy with the S&P 500 Futures declining 0.10% to 3,350 after Wall Street marked mixed closing the previous day. Looking forward, the pair traders will keep eyes on the Canadian Housing Starts for July, expected 210K versus 211.7K prior, coupled with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) that is likely receding to -0.7% from -0.8% earlier, for fresh direction. Additionally, the risk factors emanating from the Sino-American relations, US stimulus and virus news will also play their roles to determine near-term USD/CAD moves. Technical analysis A downward sloping trend line from July 14, at 1.3368 now, questions the pair’s immediate upside ahead of the monthly top surrounding 1.3450. On the downside, 1.3330 and 1.3300 can entertain sellers before diverting to the latest low around 1.3230.  

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6591 in a tight range to start the Asian day, between 0.6582 and 0.6593. The forex space is dominated by geopolitics

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6591 in a tight range to start the Asian day, between 0.6582 and 0.6593.   The forex space is dominated by geopolitics, equities, yields and the US dollar while the direction in all has equated to a near-term cap for the bird as markets get set for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The greenback was supported on the back of tension between the US and China and a moderate lift in real yields at the end of last week. China imposed sanctions on 11 US citizens including lawmakers from President Donald Trump Republican Party on Monday in response to Washington’s imposition of sanctions on Hong Kong and Chinese officials accused of curtailing political freedoms in the former British colony.   However, price action was pretty muted on the back of this and instead, investors are moving to value as seen on wall street, which has weighed on the big tech companies and stemmed the ongoing recovery in the broader stock markets. Meanwhile, there is now a focus on the RBNZ to deliver a dovish tone.  Local data has beat expectations of late; while welcome, the longer-term outlook remains highly uncertain and we expect all options – including negative rates and foreign asset purchases to remain on the table. As we note on page 1, that speaks to headwinds for the NZD,    analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  NZD/USD levels  

Despite rising at the week’s start, WTI remains clueless near $42.15/20 amid the early Asian session on Tuesday. The oil benchmark flashed another spi

WTI struggles to carry the Monday’s recovery moves near $42.15.Bulls will have to cross $43.00 before eyeing the monthly top.Bearish MACD favors sellers if they manage to break 21-day SMA support.Despite rising at the week’s start, WTI remains clueless near $42.15/20 amid the early Asian session on Tuesday. The oil benchmark flashed another spinning top, this time the bullish one, on Monday following the Friday’s bearish candlestick formation. The move suggests traders’ indecision. Other than the candlestick formation, the black gold’s trading beyond 21-day SMA and bearish MACD also confuse the energy players. As a result, market players will wait for a clear break of either $43.00 or the 21-day SMA level near $41.35 before entering any fresh positions. While an upside more is more likely considering the pair’s recovery since mid-June, multiple resistances starting with the monthly high of $43.62 challenge the bulls. In doing so, February month low near $44.00 and March month top near $48.75 will be the key. On the contrary, $40.00 and an ascending trend line from June 25, at $39.68 now, can entertain the seller below the $40.80 immediate support. WTI daily chart Trend: Sideways  

United Kingdom BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (7.6%) in July: Actual (4.3%)

The US president Donald Trump has explained that the phase 1 deal means very little and when asked about the response to Chinese sanctions, he said th

The US President Donald Trump has explained that the phase 1 deal means very little and when asked about the response to Chinese sanctions, he said that the US has already responded. This follows the news that China has imposed sanctions on 11 American lawmakers and foreign policy experts in response to similar US measures on Chinese and Hong Kong officials, as tensions between the two powers escalate. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has stated that as of the end of next year, Chinese companies that do not comply with accounting standards will be delisted from US stock exchanges. Market implications Gains for global stocks were held back on Monday as escalating tension between the two nations weighed against hopes of further economic stimulus. Wall Street Close: US benchmarks mixed as investors move into value stocks        

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (13.8%) in July: Actual (1.1%)

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 8% to 11.4% in July

Gold prices seesaw near $2,027/28 during the pre-Tokyo open Asian session on Tuesday. The yellow metal recently recovered from $2,019 but stays pressu

Gold prices struggle for a clear direction after falling for last two days, recently bounced off $2,019.42.Risk-tone sentiment stays heavy amid US-China tussle, virus woes.US stimulus and blasts near the Iraq-Kuwait border become additional catalysts.Economic calendar remains empty in Asia but risk factors stay on the driver’s seat.Gold prices seesaw near $2,027/28 during the pre-Tokyo open Asian session on Tuesday. The yellow metal recently recovered from $2,019 but stays pressured after declining for the last two consecutive trading days. Despite many indicators portraying the rush to risk-safety, the US dollar’s gains could be spotted as the key driver of the bullion’s latest weakness. US President Trump stays ready to save the greenback… Be it his executive orders concerning the unemployment claims or sanctions on Chinese diplomats including Hong Kong Leader Carry Liam, not to forget banning business with TikTok and WeChat, US President Donald Trump’s actions pulled the US dollar back from more than two years. To portray the same, the US dollar index (DXY) flashed the second positive daily closing to 93.61 by the end of Monday. While the Republican leaders’ performance on stimulus pushed Democrats back to the negotiation table for the coronavirus (COVID-19) relief bill, China retaliated to the American moves by sanctioning 11 policymakers that include two Senators. Recently, US President Trump showed optimism towards the American economy and said that he sees no reason why can’t economy grow 20% in the third quarter (Q3). The US leader also said that phase one deal with China means “very little”. Elsewhere, the COVID-19 woes continue with Victoria struggling and figures from the US stabilizing around the daily average of 60,000. However, Asian economies are likely to witness the harsh impacts of the second wave as some of them, like India, are still grappling with the first round of the pandemic. Amid all these catalysts, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.07% to 3,350 by the press after Wall Street benchmark traded mixed on Monday. Looking forward, a light calendar will keep gold traders look for risk catalysts for fresh impulse. In doing so, US-China news and American stimulus will join the COVID-19 headlines to occupy the frontlines. Technical analysis A two-week-old support line, at $2,019 now, can challenge the pair’s immediate downside ahead of the $2,000 threshold. On the upside, $2,050 and the recent high near $2,075 could entertain the bulls ahead of pushing them towards $2,100 round-figures.  

During the start of Monday’s daily press at the White House, the briefing abruptly ended with the secret service agent pulling US President Donald Tru

During the start of Monday’s daily press at the White House, the briefing abruptly ended with the secret service agent pulling US President Donald Trump for a brief lockdown in the room with other key policymakers. However, the move restored before American President Trump gave details of the incident. Key quotes Was shooting outside of the White House, under control now. Someone taken to hospital, unsure condition. Person was shot by secret service or law enforcement. No reason economy can't grow at 20% pace in Q3. Considering capital gains tax cut and income tax cut for middle-income families. FX implications The news failed to derail the market sentiment but the AUD/USD fails to recovery amid broad US dollar strength. The quote stays pressured near 0.7150 during the early Tuesday morning in Asia.

The Bank of England (BOE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden crossed wires, via The Times, during the early Tuesday morning in Asia. The BOE policymaker cit

The Bank of England (BOE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden crossed wires, via The Times, during the early Tuesday morning in Asia. The BOE policymaker cited readiness on the part of the “Old Lady” to escalate the Quantitative Easing (QE) if the economy falters again. Key quotes The Bank of England (BOE) will do more and faster quantitative easing if the economy slows and markets wobble again. The pace of gilt purchases under the QE would accelerate if we see signs of market dysfunction. The bank has significant headroom to do more if economic risks crystallized. The recovery is going to continue. A key outcome is what happens to the labor market. Some companies are going to go under. Some jobs are going to lose. Unemployment peaks at 7.5% but the risks are it will be higher than that. You could have GDP quite weak. FX implications GBP/USD pair showed no major reaction to the news considering the absence of UK/EU traders. The cable pair takes rounds to 1.3070 by the press time.

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the news citing a blast near the Iraq-Kuwait border. Their sources said that the move targeted US

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the news citing a blast near the Iraq-Kuwait border. Their sources said that the move targeted US convoy carrying military equipments. Key quotes An explosion near the Jraischan border crossing at the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border on Monday evening targeted a convoy carrying equipment for U.S. forces, three Iraqi security forces told Reuters. It was not immediately clear if there were any U.S. troops in the convoy or if anyone had been injured in the explosion, which went off just before 9 p.m. Baghdad time (1800 GMT). Vehicles are regularly loaded with military equipment at the crossing, the sources said, and the cargo is usually loaded or unloaded before entering or exiting Iraq. Market reaction As the Asian traders aren’t yet settling to take back controls from their American counterparts, the global markets remain inactive and show no major response to the news. However, the update can weigh on the US-Arab relations and may help the WTI to carry the latest recovery moves past-$42.00.

AUD/USD carries the previous day’s sober mood while taking rounds to 0.7150 at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. The aussie pair stretched Friday’

AUD/USD remains on the back foot following the latest drop from 0.7185.Friday’s consolidation extends to Monday, US dollar keeps the gains.Sino-American tussle escalates as China retaliates to Trump administration’s sanctions, US Senators ready to re-discuss COVID-19 stimulus bill.Australia’s NAB Business Confidence/Conditions to decorate calendar but risk catalysts to remain in the spotlight.AUD/USD carries the previous day’s sober mood while taking rounds to 0.7150 at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. The aussie pair stretched Friday’s losses to Monday as the US dollar remained on the front foot. The major burden on the pair was a broad risk-off mood and market’s hope that the American policymakers will be able to break the stimulus deadlock. Further weighing on the quote were US President Donald Trump’s executive orders paving way for unemployment claims and pushing Democrats to return to the table. Greenback’s recovery says it all… Be it Friday’s upbeat US employment data or US President Trump’s executive orders, not to forget the market’s rush to risk-safety due to the recent risk-on the US dollar index (DXY) managed to cheer it all. The greenback gauge marked the second positive day following its bounce off the lowest in more than two years. Republican leader Trump’s opening of the door for US jobless claims and other stimulus-related benefits pushed Democratic leaders to return on the negotiating table for coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package after calling it off the previous week. This marks the Republicans’ power and may result in the deal, which in turn helped the US dollar bulls to remain hopeful. Elsewhere, China announced fresh sanctions on 11 of the US policymakers, including two senators, in retaliation to the similar move announced by America during the last week. Even so, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang said, “China will continue implementing the phase-one economic and trade agreement with the United States, while measures announced to open up china's financial sector will continue.” Furthermore, virus woes continue but the pace of increase in the new cases seems to have stabilized in the US, despite a surge in Victoria’s death toll to a record high of 300. There were no major data on the economic calendar despite China’s inflation numbers, CPI 0.6% MoM against 0.4% previous and the US JOLTS Job Openings for June, 5.889M versus 4.91M forecast. Against this backdrop market sentiment remains mixed as Wall Street benchmarks flashed mixed gains except for Nasdaq that had to bear the burden of tech shares’ declines. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields gained 1.8 basis points to 0.58%. Moving on, National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Business Confidence and Business Conditions, prior +1 and -7 respectively, may entertain intraday traders. However, major attention will be given to the risk catalysts including virus news, US-China tussle and American stimulus. Technical analysis Unless breaking an 11-week-old support line, at 0.7130 now, AUD/USD prices are less likely to revisit 0.7065/60 rest-zone, comprising July 24 low and June 10 high. However, the pair’s upside momentum seems lacking till it breaks an upwards sloping trend line from July 22, currently around 0.7260.  

US benchmarks were mixed on Monday as the Dow jumped 1%, the S&P 500 inched up and the Nasdaq closed lower. Value stocks were bid up as investors took

Dow Jones Industrial Average added 357.96 points, or 1.3%, to 27,791.44.The S&P500 put up 9.19 points, or 0.27%, to 3,360.47.Nasdaq Composite lost 42.63 points, or 0.39%, to 10,968.36.US benchmarks were mixed on Monday as the Dow jumped 1%, the S&P 500 inched up and the Nasdaq closed lower. Value stocks were bid up as investors took a step down from heavyweight tech-related names as there was still no progress on a  US fiscal support bill. Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 357.96 points, or 1.3%, to 27,791.44, the S&P500 put up 9.19 points, or 0.27%, to 3,360.47 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 42.63 points, or 0.39%, to 10,968.36. Microsoft CorpMSFT, Amazon.com Inc AMZN and Facebook Inc FB  were all a drag on the NASDAQ that has otherwise been enjoying a series of higher record highs of late. Value stocks, which tend to outperform growth coming out of a recession, have gotten a lift in recent days. Consequently, we have seen the Russell 1000 value index add 0.9% on Monday, while the Russell 1000 growth index fell 0.5%.    All in all, the markets remain unfazed by the ongoing negotiations in the US, despite there not even being a certain date for when negotiations between congressional leaders will resume. In other news, China sanctioned 11 US officials in retaliation to similar moves made by the US against Chinese officials last week, although there was little reaction to this.Yi Gang, governor of PBoC: China to continue implementing phase-one trade agreementS&P 500 levels  
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